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Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh Tips, Odds & Predictions

Date: Sunday, 1 March Time: 01:00 AM GMT Venue: Arena CDMX, Mexico Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh will square up in the Octagon in a flyweight bout at Arena CDMX on Sunday 1, March. This fight tops the billing, but it is intriguing as Moreno’s original opponent, Asu Almabayaev, was forced to pull out through injury. Nevertheless, many of the leading betting sites for UFC will carry an array of odds to engage punters. Currently fifth in the official rankings, Moreno has carved out the nickname ‘Assassin Baby’, and although his results have been mixed with two defeats from his past four outings, the Mexican will want to shine on home soil.

Charles Perrin
Charles Perrin

Last updated: 2026-02-11

Chad Nagel

6 minutes read

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(L-R) Brandon Moreno of Mexico punches Tatsuro Taira of Japan

(L-R) Brandon Moreno punches Tatsuro Taira / Getty Images

Kavanagh, meanwhile, is almost something of an unknown quantity, as he’s had considerably fewer fights than Moreno, but his record stands at 9-1-0. The Englishman has been making serious headway, and his only loss came at the hands of Charles Johnson, who flattened him with a decisive right hook.

Back to the here and now, and Moreno vs Kavanagh offers some intriguing angles. To set the tone, we’ve provided UFC betting insights and sourced odds from leading sportsbooks, which may, in turn, influence your picks.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

The US online betting operators will be well stocked with Moneyline odds, so let’s assess how things are shaping up ahead of Moreno vs Kavanagh:

  1. Brandon Moreno: 37/50 (1.74) – 57.45%

  2. Lone’er Kavanagh: 17/10 (2.70) – 37.04%
    *Odds courtesy of BetMGM, subject to change.

Tale of the Tape

To guide your UFC betting strategies, it’s worth taking a closer look at all the available statistics. Of course, some UFC betting operators will carry basic information, such as an individual fighter’s form leading into a bout.

However, at SportsBoom, we don’t take things at face value. We’ve provided a full table, detailing areas such as method of victories and weights, so check this out below.

Tale of the Tape

AttributeBrandon MorenoLone’er Kavanagh
Age3226
Height5’7” (170cm)5’4” (163cm)
Weight125lbs (56.6kg)126lbs (57.1kg)
Reach70” (178cm)67” (170cm)
Record23-9-29-1-0
KO/TKO5 Wins (22%)4 Wins (44%)
Submission11 Wins (48%)1 Win (11%)
Decisions7 Wins (30%)4 Wins (44%)
Sportsboom Event Table Logo

Brandon Moreno News

A student of the sport, Moreno, who is known as ‘Assassin Baby’ seems to have ice in his veins. Growing up in a country full of prestigious fighters, both from an Octagon and boxing perspective, Moreno is trying to put himself in a position for another shot at a title.

With over a decade of experience in MMA, Moreno is a former two-time UFC flyweight champion, and he has a 23-9-2 record to show for it. Moreno’s fighting style is based on the Brazilian jiu-jitsu skillset. Combined with his extensive knowledge of kickboxing, Moreno is to be feared.

While there were suspect performances against Royval and Taira, Moreno exhibited his power against Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi, winning by unanimous points decisions. A classy operator, Moreno is good at weaving and ducking, and he will ask serious questions of Kavanagh.

Lone’er Kavanagh News

A newcomer on the scene, Lone’er Kavanagh is only 26, but he’s on a mission. Having snuck into the top 15 in the flyweight rankings, Kavanagh has got off to a blistering start.

Just one defeat from his 10 bouts suggests he is great in clutch moments. He’s had an even split of wins across TKO/KO and Decision (44%), and apart from a couple of cancelled bouts, he’s won seven of his past eight contests.

Of his most recent wins, the victory over An Tuan Ho was devastating as Kavanagh was all over him from the opening bell, and he landed a crushing hook in Round 1 to end the contest.

To a certain extent, his style is similar to that of Moreno, considering his kickboxing expertise, but with a slightly shorter reach, which could count against Kavanagh.

Suggested Bets

Some US betting sites will provide UFC betting insights leading into a bout, and we’ve handpicked a few markets worth tapping up ahead of Moreno vs Kavanagh.

  1. Brandon Moreno to Win by Submission: Although his ‘Assassin Baby’ tag would suggest that Moreno is a TKO/KO expert, the majority of his victories have come via Submission (44%), and he could put Kavanagh under a lot of pressure. If he comes out firing on all cylinders, then Moreno could take the contest via this method. (33/50 with FanDuel)

  2. Brandon Moreno Over 0.5 Takedowns: Although his takedown accuracy (44%) is lower compared to Kavanagh, Moreno has an impressive takedown average, and he could take the sting out of Kavanagh’s attacks. The Over 0.5 takedowns for Moreno has some legs to it. (41/60 with Hard Rock Bet)

  3. Lone’er Kavanagh to Win by KO/TKO: While Kavanagh might be trading as the underdog with many UFC betting sites, the Englishman won’t mind spoiling the party in Mexico. He could be inspired, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he could deliver a telling KO/TKO performance. (37/50 with BetMGM)

Value Bets

We’ve also run through a few value bets that could pay off for you in the Moreno vs Kavanagh bout:

  1. Fight to Go the Distance: Although Kavanagh doesn’t have as much pedigree as Moreno’s original opponent Almabayaev, don’t be fooled. Kavanagh is one of those pugilists who will be prepared to dig deep and go the distance. Kavanagh’s most recent contests haven’t been long, and with both fighters strong in the kicking department, the bout to go the full five rounds is worth exploring. (4/1 with DraftKings)

  2. Under 3.5 Rounds: Kavanagh hasn’t been pushed too hard in his most recent fights, and in fact, he hasn’t gone beyond the third round in his past three contests. There is the possibility that either fighter could chalk up a quick victory and finish the contest in three rounds or less. (5/1 with Caesars Sportsbook)

  3. Brandon Moreno to Win by Decision: Moreno can be clinical, and his experience counts for a lot. While the majority of his wins have come via submission, Moreno can mix it up and make Kavanagh suffer. If it goes to the judges’ scorecards, then Moreno could get the nod. (5/1 with FanDuel)

Prediction: Brandon Moreno to Win by Decision

UFC fight nights always offer plenty of excitement, and it will be a raucous atmosphere in Mexico. Kavanagh’s ascent has been rapid, and while he wasn’t on our radar in the past, he’s someone that we are going to be paying close attention to.

Kavanagh’s record is impressive, but Moreno’s credentials as the first Mexican-born UFC champion in the sport’s history means he carries the weight of his nation’s hopes on his shoulders. Although Kavanagh will acquit himself well, Moreno could end up being too strong. This fight could go the distance, but Moreno could land a victory by decision. 

Charles Perrin
Charles PerrinSports Writer

Charles Perrin has spent more than six years covering the world of sports betting, during which he has collaborated with some of the most recognised sportsbooks in the UK, including industry leaders such as bet365 and William Hill.