Betting
Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Preview – UFC 324 Tips, Odds, & Predictions
Date: Sunday, 25 January 2026 Time: 02:00 AM GMT Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, USA UFC 324 comes into sharp focus, and on Sunday, 25 January 2026, Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett will square off in the Octagon for a shot at the lightweight title. This will represent the start of an exciting Paramount+ era after fights were moved from pay-per-view. There will be a stacked undercard, but the main event will be an intriguing contest. Gaethje, who joined UFC almost 10 years, holds a 27-5 record, having initially started with a perfect 17-0.
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Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett//Getty Images
Pimblett (23-3), on the other hand, is a former Cage Warriors lightweight champion, and he is slowly working up the rankings. His undoubted highlight of 2025 was his TKO win over Michael Chandler at UFC 314, and it will be fascinating to see how he gets on.
UFC betting sites will have spent time compiling odds for this matchup, and it will be fascinating to see how it unfolds. We’ve shared some UFC betting strategies that are worth unlocking before the bout.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Pimblett Heavily Backed
We’ve scurried over to one of the leading online betting sites in the USA to see how the pre-match betting odds are shaping up. Examining this is a good starting point.
Justin Gaethje: 17/10 (22.70) – 37%
Paddy Pimblett: 26/56 (1.46) – 68.3%
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM, subject to change.
Tale of the Tape
Some UFC betting sportsbooks in the USA will like to give fans statistical nuggets in the run-up to a big fight, looking at how they’ve fared in previous contests.
To inform our Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett preview, we’ve provided a tale of the tape to see how both fighters compare, and this table may influence your UFC betting strategies.
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Justin Gaethje | Paddy Pimblett |
| Age | 27 | 30 |
| Height | 5’11 (180cm) | 5’10 (178cm) |
| Weight | 155lbs (70kg) | 155lbs (70kg) |
| Reach | 70” (177cm) | 73” (185cm) |
| Record | 27-5-0 | 23-3-0 |
| KO/TKO | 20 wins (74%) | 7 wins (30%) |
| Submission | 1 win (4%) | 10 wins (43%) |
| Decisions | 6 wins (22%) | 6 wins (26%) |
Justin Gaethje News
An undoubted American fan favorite, Justin Gaethje, known as “The Highlight”, boasts a formidable record in the Octagon. His explosive striking power has seen him score over 70% of his wins via KO/TKO method.
Although he’s had a couple of bruising losses over the past couple of years, particularly at the hands of Charles Oliviera in May 2022, where he was forced into submission in Round 1, there have been some standout moments, including a KO/TKO win over UFC legend Dustin Poirier at UFC 291.
There were reports that emerged over the festive period that Gaethje was submitted by Kamaru Usman during a training session, sparking fears that a cut could force him to pull out. However, as things stand, Gaethje appears to be okay.
A born entertainer, Gaethje is explosive and always looking to gain a stoppage win. Gaethje’s last fight was in March 2025, where he claimed a unanimous decision victory over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313. After the win, Gaethje threatened to retire if he didn’t get a shot at a world title fight, but he can make his dreams a reality in Vegas and become a two-time interim UFC lightweight champion.
Paddy Pimblett News
Despite carrying the nickname of “The Baddy”, Paddy Pimblett will perhaps relish being cast as the villain in this contest. Pimblett has slowly worked his way up the greasy pole in UFC after making his full debut in 2021.
Although there has been criticism voiced over the matchups that have been provided for Pimblett, who checks in at No.5 in the official UFC lightweight rankings, the Brit’s fighting style is characterized by aggressive striking and exceptional grappling skills.
Pimblett is quite charismatic, and apart from a distinctive haircut, he is known to pack on the pounds before the fight. Perhaps Pimblett could expose Gaethje with his superior jiu-jitsu skills, and he’s a pretty decent wrestler too.
Having stopped Michael Chandler last time out via TKO in the third round in April 2025, Pimblett, who scored a statement win, will set his sights on attaining true elite status. His career trajectory has been impressive to date, and it will be fascinating to see how he tackles Gaethje.
Suggested Bets
UFC bookmakers will normally be stacked with plenty of pre-bout offers and lines for fans to tuck into. We have explored the markets and provided some intriguing Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett odds to jump on.
Paddy Pimblett to Win: Although the pedigree of fighters that Pimblett has taken on are perhaps less distinguished than Gatheje, he has an impressive record, and he is becoming a force to be reckoned with. If Pimblett settles early on, he could have too much for Gaethje, and he could eke out a win. (47/100 with FanDuel)
Justin Gaethje to Win by KO/TKO: Gaethje is a certified KO/TKO expert, with over 70% of his wins in UFC coming via this method. His victory over Poirier was exceptional, with a devastating kick finishing the contest in Round 2. If Gaethje is in full flow, he could pull off another KO/TKO win. (8/11 with DraftKings)
Paddy Pimblett to Win inside Three Rounds: Pimblett doesn’t mess about or dither in the Octagon. He’s scored seven wins on the trot, and he clinched all those victories within the first three rounds. Indeed, three of those wins arrived in the first round, so in terms of UFC betting insights, this is worth latching onto. (11/8 with bet365)
Value Bets
Total Under 4.5 rounds: Given the vast skillset on show, neither fighter will want to take too many risks early on to reveal their cards. As such, it could take a couple of rounds for things to heat up, and the total Under 4.5 round line is worth investigating. (2/1 with BetRivers)
Paddy Pimblett to Win by Decision: In two of his past four contests, Pimblett has taken the contest by unanimous decision, and he is on his A-game at the moment. If he can take the initiative, then Pimblett could well gain favor on the judges’ scorecards and secure victory. (3/1 with ESPN Bet)
Fight to Go the Distance: UFC is never short on drama, and while these two fighters have often got the job done relatively quickly, this could end up being a more attritional affair. As such, the fight to go the distance line has some legs to it. (3/1 with BetMGM)
Prediction: Pimblett to Win by Submission
UFC 324 promises to be an exciting night, and Vegas once again will provide all the glitz and glamor. Gaethje has perhaps had the trickier fights lately, but Pimblett’s stock has increased over the past 12 months.
If Pimblett can stifle Gaethje with his striking power, then he could well silence a Vegas crowd, who will be rooting for Gaethje. Pimblett has been in stunning form, and while he’s not invincible, there are no obvious flaws in his style. He could well put Gatehje under a lot of pressure, and a win by submission is appealing.
Charles Perrin has spent more than six years covering the world of sports betting, during which he has collaborated with some of the most recognised sportsbooks in the UK, including industry leaders such as bet365 and William Hill.