How Contract Holdouts Can Help Predict NFL Trades

A Brief History of Holdouts and What They Actually Signal

Under the current CBA ratified in 2020, players who hold out of training camp are fined $50,000 per day, and unlike prior agreements, teams are no longer permitted to waive those fines for veterans. That change has pushed many players toward the hold-in, reporting to camp but refusing to practice, as a lower-cost form of protest.

Not all holdouts resolve quickly. Le'Veon Bell sat out the entire 2018 Pittsburgh Steelers season rather than play on a franchise tag, which he felt undervalued him and forfeited his $14.5 million salary.

In 2023, Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, a four-time All-Pro who had posted 15.5 sacks the prior season, skipped the preseason. He held out through Week 1, watching from a luxury suite as the Chiefs lost their season opener to the Detroit Lions without him.

When a player on an expiring or final-year contract holds out, and the team has cap constraints, a trade is the most likely outcome. When a team has cap space and a critical need to retain the player, resolution is more likely. 

The Chris Jones situation had "extension" written all over it despite the lack of official transparency. The Chiefs had the projected 2024 cap room to restructure the deal, Jones had no desire to leave, and Kansas City had no realistic replacement. Sure enough, Jones returned after Week 1 and signed a five-year, $158 million extension in 2024.

How Holdouts Move the Market

The Khalil Mack holdout of 2018 revealed how unresolved contract tension can suddenly reshape multiple betting markets simultaneously.

Mack, then with the Oakland Raiders, had been seeking a new deal for months. When Jon Gruden's front office refused to meet his demands and traded him to the Chicago Bears on September 1, 2018, days before the season opener, the Bears' Super Bowl odds moved from 50/1 to 40/1 immediately.

 The Raiders, meanwhile, saw their win total drop from 8.5 and 8.0 to 7.0-7.5 across sportsbooks.Any bettor who understood that the Raiders' new coaching staff had consistently refused to negotiate, making a trade increasingly probable, could have bought the Bears at 100/1 before the deal became public.

A different pattern emerged during the 2024 Matthew Judon situation. Judon arrived at Patriots training camp in late July without pads, had a visible on-field argument with head coach Jerod Mayo, and then briefly walked off. The Patriots, in the first year of a full rebuild under a new coach and personnel chief, had no financial or competitive reason to extend a 32-year-old pass rusher with a torn bicep the prior season.

The trade was almost certain to go down, but the question was who would acquire him. When the trade to Atlanta was confirmed on August 14, the Falcons moved to -120 favorites to win the NFC South, and most regulated betting sites moved their Super Bowl odds from +5000 to +3500. The Patriots fell to +30000, dead last in the league.

When a Holdout Points to a Trade

When the front office is philosophically opposed to the salary demands of the player, it often results in a trade and can be a fixed-price trigger. Back in 2018, Raiders coach Jon Gruden publicly called Mack's demand of roughly $90 million "astronomical" and "something we could not do." A short while later, former executives were leaking trade talk to reporters weeks before the deal happened. 

Also, look out when management stops publicly affirming the player's future (the contractual probability of re-signing plummets). When a team wants to keep a player, coaches and GMs say so clearly and repeatedly. The Patriots never publicly reassured Judon after his on-field confrontation with first-year coach Jerod Mayo at training camp in 2024. He was traded to Atlanta 14 days later for a third-round pick.