Betting
Best Bets for NCAA Men’s Basketball – Friday, March 6
College basketball conference tournaments are underway, with key matchups in the Summit and Atlantic 10 conferences highlighted for potential value. Dayton is favored against VCU due to their strong defensive play, while Denver vs. North Dakota is predicted to have a high-scoring game based on previous meetings and offensive stats.
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Virginia Commonwealth v Kansas by Ronald Martinez | Getty Images
Friday, March 6, 2026 - College basketball conference tournament play is in full swing this weekend with tickets to qualify for the big dance being punched throughout the next 10 days.
Many of the small-school events are already beyond the first round, and there are two games that standout with the early lines and totals published.
This late in the season, and with these teams already meeting earlier, there is plenty of data and analytics points in a particular direction when we size up the match ups in the Summit Conference Tournament, and one of the final games in the Atlantic 10 Conference regular season.
Here’s where we see the maximum value:
Virginia Commonwealth at Dayton (7 pm ET): Dayton ML -113 FD
Dayton is playing its best basketball when it matters most, thrashing St. Louis last month at a time when the STL was a top 25 team, winning at George Washington (a house of horrors for years for Dayton) and surviving at Richmond to end a tough road trip. Now the Flyers are back home and they have reeled off six straight wins since losing at VCU a month ago.
We love how Dayton is playing defense, holding opponents to 67 points or less in five of the last six games.
Dayton has just one home defeat in the A-10 and they will be out for revenge after stomped by 26 points at VCU. They gave up 99 in that contest and have cranked up the pressure and defensive intensity since then. They are fighting for tournament seeding and this crowd will be electric.
Denver vs. North Dakota (9:30 PM, neutral site): Over 160.5 (-115, FD)
Denver was a dead over team for much of the season and ended up going over 20-7-1 to the over for the season. Perhaps tournament play will bring a tighter style of play… but we doubt it.
The two games these teams played this season had scorelines of 98-79 and 93-86. They split those meetings. Denver is 8-3 to the over when a favorite this season and 12-4-1 to the over in a road or neutral setting. These teams ranked third and fourth, respectively, in the Summit in offensive efficiency and seventh and eighth in the conference in defensive efficiency.
Denver gave up an astounding 102 points to Oral Roberts in their regular-season finale, a reminder of their defensive woes, and North Dakota was 11-4-1 to the over in conference play. When the total was between 159.5-162.5 this season, Denver was 5-1 to the over. Both these teams can score 80 points here without playing their “A Game” on offense.
La Canfora has covered over 20 Super Bowls and League Meetings and NFL drafts, building a wide network of sources throughout all aspects of the game. He was an award winning print journalist as well, working at The Detroit Free Press and The Baltimore Sun prior to his first stint at The Washington Post. He has covered sporting events around the world, including two Winter Olympics and all of the 2006 World Cup. He attended his first NFL game in 1978, and would soon kindle what has become a lifelong love and appreciation of the sport. La Canfora is also a professional handicapper, specializing in the NFL, creating a daily sports wagering game show - "Wanna Bet?" He also hosts nationally broadcast NFL radio shows in the US, as well as a daily sports radio show in his hometown of Baltimore, Maryland.