Has Live Betting Become More Popular Than Pre-Match Betting?

Yet, live betting has gained immense popularity, particularly owing to the use of mobile technology and the live action in the game ^[1]. 

For instance, before kickoff, a bettor could wager $50 on the New York Giants at +200. The live market at half-time is +450 with the Giants down by ten points. The bettor then has to choose to either keep the pre-match ticket or hedge with a live bet. This is one of the reasons that live betting is considered more interesting and exciting than conventional pre-match betting.

Market Explanation: Pricing & Probability

Sportsbooks determine pre-match odds by employing statistical models, injury reports, and public opinion ^[2]. For example, a moneyline of -110 means that the odds of winning are about 52.4% (excluding the vig). Live betting is a real-time calculation of probabilities, which changes according to the state of the game and the performance of the players. The Golden State Warriors could open at -150 and drop 15 points in the second quarter, which could see the live market move to +200 ^[3]. 

The speed of the data feeds and the algorithms is crucial to the efficiency of live markets, and pre-match odds are fairly stable whilst live odds are constantly changing, sometimes by the second. This volatility generates perceived opportunities, and bettors are at risk of higher variance ^[3].

Why Bettors believe Live Betting is superior

Live betting appeals to the bettors psychologically. They have an affinity for what's happening now, whether it be a touchdown or a three-point run, and believe that what happened recently will continue. The illusion of control leads bettors to believe that they have more control over the game by reacting to what happens during the game, but they still don't know what the result will be. 

All these factors contribute to the belief that live betting is more flexible and exciting than pre-match betting.

Breaking the Logic

Although live betting is very appealing, it has its own share of flaws. Placing multiple live bets combines probabilities and therefore decreases the odds of winning. Sportsbooks charge a higher vig on live markets, which means bettors pay more than the pre-match lines ^[1]. Mispriced odds often only last for a few seconds. Variance is another major factor; in the NFL, a pick-six can make a huge difference in the live odds, and in the NBA, a late three-pointer can have a huge impact. 

A bettor who places a $100 bet on the Los Angeles Lakers at +300 odds while they were coming back from a slump might find the Lakers' odds change to -150 after a run of scoring. Although it seems to be a good way to make money; the risk of late-game variance is still high, and the sportsbook's margin will make it more profitable for the sportsbook in the long run.

Everything About Live Betting.

Live betting is becoming more popular in U.S. sportsbooks due to its ability to drive increased engagement and turnover ^[4]. Same-game parlays, which are usually linked to live markets, boost the operators' profit margins. During big events such as the Super Bowl or NBA Finals, it is estimated that live betting can make up over 50% of the handle ^[3].

The numbers don't lie: live betting helps retain players on platforms, boosts the number of bets per game, and improves operator hold percentages. But this doesn't imply that live betting is necessarily better for bettors; it's just the way that sportsbooks make the most money. Platforms like SportsBoom delve into these dynamics, providing insights into NFL, NBA, and MLS betting behavior, including MLS betting trends.