Have Sportsbooks Become Too Reliant on the NFL Calendar?

The Seasonal Cliff Is Real

The US sports betting industry follows a pattern where the handle peaks from October through February during the NFL season and the Super Bowl, spikes again briefly during March Madness, then contracts sharply through spring and summer before football drags it back up in September. ^[1]

FanDuel Sportsbook – Screenshot captured by Chad Nagel on June 14, 2026 – 07:25 UTC

For the sixth consecutive year, the fall sports calendar driven primarily by the NFL produced the industry's most lucrative quarter on record. Q4 2024 generated $3.66 billion in revenue, a 7.3% increase from the previous Q4 record. ^[2]

Contrast that with Q1 2026, when sports betting handle actually fell 0.8% year-over-year - the first quarterly handle decline since COVID, with March specifically down 2.6%. ^[3] The NFL's absence was a major factor. The industry's revenue held up thanks to a favorable hold rate, but volume itself retreated. 

The American Gaming Association projected that Americans would wager $30 billion on the 2025 NFL season alone, an 8.5% increase over the prior season's revised $27.6 billion. ^[4] To put that in context, total US sports betting revenue for the entire year of 2024 was $150 billion. The NFL season, covering roughly five months, is responsible for 20% of all bets across the year.

Earnings Calls Don't Lie

In January 2025, Flutter Entertainment filed an SEC 8-K updating investors that the 2024/2025 NFL season had been "the most customer-friendly since the launch of online sports betting, with the highest rate of favorites winning in nearly 20 years." ^[5]

FanDuel's parent company was forced to revise its full-year US revenue guidance down by approximately $370 million as a direct result. ^[6] DraftKings CEO Jason Robins separately acknowledged that NFL results in the early part of the same season created a $250 million headwind for his company. ^[7]

DraftKings Sportsbook – Screenshot captured by Felix Dubler on June 14, 2026 – 07:23 UTC

In February 2026, Flutter CEO Peter Jackson told analysts that a slowdown in betting activity during the second half of the 2025/2026 season was attributable to "poor football matchups" and a playoff bracket featuring "fewer favorites" and "fewer player narratives." ^[8] He said that customers put their cues back in the rack and stopped betting because of poor football matchups.

Despite FanDuel posting Q4 2025 sportsbook revenue growth of 35%, handle growth moderated significantly, and Flutter stock fell nearly 43% from the start of 2026. ^[9][10]

DraftKings' own disclosures tell the same story from the bull side. The company's Q4 2025 sportsbook handle during the peak NFL weeks reached $16.8 billion, a 13% year-over-year increase. ^[11] Its full-year sportsbook handle hit $54 billion, up 11%, with the company recording a 16% NFL hold percentage for the 2025/2026 season. ^[12]

When the NFL hums, DraftKings prints money. When it doesn't or when favorites win at historic rates and bettor-friendly outcomes pile up, the P&L bleeds fast.

Is Diversification Actually Working?

The industry is building non-NFL volume. FanDuel CEO Peter Jackson pointed to soccer and MLS as the fourth most popular sport on the platform and cited the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a key handle driver for the year ahead. ^[13]

DraftKings News X Account – Screenshot captured by Chad Nagel on June 14, 2026 – 07:22 UTC

DraftKings, for its part, recorded its highest-ever customer acquisition day outside of Super Bowl Sundays during the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight in November 2024, a signal that combat sports can generate acquisition spikes even in the NFL dead zone. ^[14] iGaming has become a genuine buffer, DraftKings' online casino contributed a record $500 million to Q4 2025 total revenue, providing a structural floor when sports results turn customer-friendly. 

The pivot to prediction markets is also a bid to generate new revenue streams unrelated to football. Both DraftKings and FanDuel have launched prediction market products in late 2025 and early 2026. ^[15] If prediction markets can generate consistent volume across all 12 months while covering elections, economic indicators, and non-sporting events, they represent a hedge against the NFL calendar.