Could Real-Time Statistics Change How Americans Bet on Sports?

However, in practice, sportsbooks aren't trying to forecast the future; they are simply adjusting their odds, or implied probability, and the game's situation ^[1]

But, with the advent of real-time statistics like expected points added (EPA) or live win probability models, it has thrown in another layer of complexity. Now, bettors can get granular data streams that seem to give them a better look into what's happening in the game. But the important question is: does having access to better data actually alter the way people bet, or does it just help to further cement their illusions about the certainty of inherently uncertain events?

Market Explanation: How Pricing Works

The concept of implied probability is the basis for sportsbook pricing. American odds can be converted to percentages as well: -110 becomes approximately 52.4% (without taking into account the vig). This means that bettors are betting into a market that already has a house edge – even before the ball is snapped. Variance is also very important. 

A team that creates 3.0 goals can still finish with just one for a variety of reasons. Lastly, the sportsbook hold ensures that the sportsbook is profitable. In the regulated U.S. markets, the hold is typically 4–11%, and operators will be in a position to make a profit over time. ^[2]

Why Bettors Believe Real-Time Data Helps

Bettors believe that real-time data can help them make better decisions. This is not a mathematical but rather a psychological belief. Overconfidence comes into play when bettors are presented with advanced metrics, such as win probability graphs. There is also a psychology to payout, as the odds change, it gives a sense of urgency.^[3]

This is especially true in the NBA, where statistics on possession are readily available. Although sportsbooks are also making adjustments based on granular data, bettors tend to believe that having granular data also provides them with a predictive advantage.

The Point Where the Logic Fails

One key takeaway from this assumption that real-time statistics are a promise of better outcomes is that there are several key realities that need to be considered. For example, the success rate of the same game parlay is even less. If it's “Over 220.5 points” and “Player X over 25.5 points,” it's a lot riskier, even if each leg looks good, in an NBA game. Three-run innings can cause MLB live totals to skyrocket, but once bullpen strength is taken into account, it may even out. 

Early swing chasers tend to be on the wrong side when there is a pullback. Over the long run, the perceived benefits are further diminished by long-term variability. While it's possible to make a few wins by staking $100 on an NFL team at +200 when they turn over, over hundreds of bets, it's chaos. Finally, operator integration involves sportsbooks getting access to official feeds from sportsbook providers such as Sportradar ^[4]. Bettors are not usually provided with information any sooner than the operators, so any advantage that they may think they have is soon eliminated.

The Growth of the Live Betting Industry

Nevertheless, live betting is continuing to increase at a rapid pace in the United States. Now, in-play betting makes up a large portion of the handle in NBA and NFL games, according to state reports ^[5]. The dynamics of the soccer markets, especially Major League Soccer (MLS), are similar. 

While in-play odds change from one possession to the next, the operator and variance stay the same.