The Best NFL Offseason Markets to Bet On Before the Draft

More than 60% of early Super Bowl futures tickets placed this offseason have already shifted teams compared to opening lines. That statistic alone tells you how volatile and exploitable this window is!

Super Bowl Futures: Go Deeper on the Board

Super Bowl futures open at their loosest prices in the days immediately following the championship game. Sportsbooks want engagement, so they post markets before they have confidence in how the offseason will unfold, and market liquidity is often thin.

I recommend you avoid the very top of the board early in the year because favorites have more ways to go wrong than right over the next seven months. Unlike in virtual sports, injuries, roster losses, coaching changes, and difficult schedules can all derail a favorite before Week 1 kickoff.

Historically, the Super Bowl winner has come from the top four preseason favorites in eight of the last 10 seasons, but that does not necessarily mean those teams were good NFL bets at their early prices. The best example remains the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, who won the Super Bowl after opening around +4000 odds before the season. 

Every offseason, there are teams in the middle of the board that improve dramatically through the draft and free agency. The key strategy is to look for teams priced between roughly +1500 and +4000 that have strong rosters, stable coaching, and clear upgrade paths through the draft.

Season Win Totals: The Most Profitable Long-Term Market

Season win totals are widely considered the most profitable long-term NFL betting market, particularly during the offseason before the draft. This is because win totals move significantly based on roster changes, and if you bet early, you can capture line value before the market adjusts.

Even small changes in betting odds imply significant changes in projected wins. When sportsbooks move the price on a win total from -110 to -120 on the Over, they are effectively increasing that team’s expected wins slightly. When a win total itself moves from 10.5 to 11.5 after free agency, that represents a massive shift in market expectations.

Season Win Totals

By the time the draft arrives, much of the value has already been absorbed. Bettors who wait until August are usually betting into efficient markets.

The Analytical Frameworks Professionals Use

Teams that performed extremely well or extremely poorly in close games tend to regress the following season. One-score game records are notoriously unstable from year to year, so teams that went 8-2 in close games are often overvalued the following season, while teams that went 2-8 are often undervalued.

Schedule mapping is another important tool. Before betting a win total, you need to map out the entire schedule and group games into likely wins, toss-ups, and likely losses. Strength of schedule significantly impacts whether a team can exceed expectations.

Defensive investment is the third major factor that often gets overlooked. Teams that invest heavily in pass rush and defensive line play tend to improve faster than the market expects.

Division Winner Markets: Better Value Than Super Bowl Futures

Many professional bettors actually prefer division winner markets to Super Bowl futures because they offer better risk-adjusted returns, this is also true for Simulated Reality (SRL) leagues. It is much easier for a team to win its division than to win the Super Bowl, and sportsbooks sometimes misprice division odds early in the offseason.

A team that finished second in its division may only need one key addition and retention, such as a quarterback, offensive line improvement, or defensive upgrade, to become the favorite. 

Historically, last-place teams winning their division the following year is more common than most bettors realize. Since the NFL’s divisional realignment in 2002, last-place teams have gone on to win their division the next season dozens of times. 

NFL MVP: The Middle Tier Is Where the Money Is

The MVP market follows a very clear historical pattern. Since 2001, only three non-quarterbacks have won the award, and almost every MVP winner plays for a team that wins at least 11 games.

Because of this, the best MVP bets are often quarterbacks in the middle tier of odds. The favorites attract heavy public money, which pushes their odds too low, while longshots usually play for teams that will not win enough games. 

Stafford in 2025 was the dream pick. He opened at +5,000 due to being 37; however, he guided the Rams to 12 wins and topped the league in passing yards and touchdowns.

NFL MVP!

The offseason is particularly valuable for MVP bets because roster changes, coaching changes, and narrative storylines can dramatically shift odds before the season begins. MVP is a media-voted award, so comeback seasons, new teams, and breakout seasons all influence voting.

Draft Props and Rookie Award Markets: The Highest Upside Plays

Draft props and rookie award markets often provide the highest upside bets of the entire offseason. The No. 1 overall pick market is usually not very useful because the favorite becomes extremely short odds long before the draft. For example, Fernando Mendoza for the 2026 draft reached -20,000 at FanDuel!

Rookie of the Year markets offer fantastic long-shot opportunities. Rookie award markets open shortly after the draft, and sportsbooks often misprice players based on name recognition. Previously unknown Carson Schwesinger is a great example. Back in 2025, he opened at +6000 and won the award outright.