Don't Get Suckered! Why Every Betting System is Garbage

Every Gambling System is Garbage

I have an Instagram account that is all about top slot machines and gambling. Because I consume a lot of gambling-related content (plus publish a lot of my own), I get to see all sorts of casino videos from other creators.

Among the popular types of content people create, particularly related to the game of roulette, is content pitching betting systems. They often crow about 90% win rates and how it is easy to beat the casinos. This is deceptive and mostly untrue.

The claim that there are systems that win 90% of the time is true, however that is only talking about the chance of showing a profit on a single spin or bet. All gambling systems ultimately fail when tested over large simulations. There is no way to beat a casino game, short of card counting in blackjack or cheating in some other way.

In the case of the 90% roulette systems, you're often staking large sums of money in an attempt to win just a small profit. It's true that you may "win" 90% of the time the profit is tiny, but when you lose the other 10% of the time, the results are devastating and the losses are huge.

For example, I saw a video of a guy covering most of the numbers on a roulette wheel with $350 of total bets. His "system" does win most of the time; however, his wins are only $50 each, and when he loses, the entire $350 is lost.

There are literally tens of thousands (or maybe more) of videos about betting systems on Instagram. In the long run, every last one of them is a loser.

I'm not saying that you shouldn't use a betting system. If it makes the game more entertaining for you, that's great. Just know that you are not ever changing the underlying mathematics of the game and the end result over your gambling career will be roughly the same.

That is, unless, your belief in gambling systems causes you to bet more than you otherwise would bet. In that case, your use of a betting system is most likely going to end in financial ruin.

Types of Betting Systems

Every day there is a new betting system popping up and usually its creator is promising riches. However, when put to the test, every single one of them fails.

Yet, despite the fact that every tested betting system has ultimately failed, there are still new ones getting pushed every day, plus there are old ones that have always been failures when tested over time, but new players learn about them and use them.

Let's take a look at a few...

The Martingale System

By far, the most popular betting system is one known as the Martingale System. It's pretty simple, and that's probably one of the many factors that makes it popular.

The system works like this: Every time you lose a bet, double it and bet again. When tested in an environment without limitations, it actually does work; if you have a limitless bankroll, limitless time, and no table limits, you will eventually win and show a profit. The profit is small though; for example, if your first bet is $5, you will only end up with a $5 profit when you finally win.

However, in the real world, the system just doesn't work. Here's why:

• For the Martingale System to work 100% of the time, you must have an unlimited bankroll. Lose ten bets in a row (and it's very possible), and your 11th bet needs to be $5,120!
• Additionally, for a 100% success rate, you must have unlimited time. Over millions of hands, craps rolls, or roulette spins, you will have lots of instances of 15, 20, or more consecutive losses.
• Finally, to achieve that 100% success rate, you will need a casino table game that has no limit and will allow you to double your next bet, no matter what. That game does not exist.

One of the things that contributes to belief in this system is that most people can successfully win that one unit bet if they just try it a few times. However, that one person that fails will lose a ton, more than covering all of the small wins of all of the small winners...and some.

The Cancellation Betting System

The Cancellation Betting System also has a bit of a following. It requires pen and paper and uses similarly gimmickry. You start with a series of bet amounts written down. That's your goal.

You then bet the sum of two numbers on your list. If a bet wins, you cross them off. If the bet loses, you write the amount lost on your list.

Once you have crossed out all numbers, you have hit your goal.

Rather than fully explain this horrible idea, I'll let the best known expert on casino game odds explain the problems with this system. You can view his explanation at the Wizard of Odds site.

The Role of Gambler's Fallacy

As you learn more about betting systems, you will notice a common thread that runs through most of them. There is this concept beneath the surface of "being due" or that the result of a past spin/roll/round affects the outcome of the next spin/roll/round.

This myth is referred to as the "gambler's fallacy."

There is no such thing as due. With the exception of cards dealt in a blackjack game from the current shoe, the previous hands' results do not affect the outcome of the next game.

It has been tested by mathematicians over decades; there is no such thing as "being due" to win.