Best Bets for College Basketball – Thursday, March 12

Thursday, March 12, 2026 - Conference tournaments are in full swing. Selection Sunday is almost upon. And smaller schools are fighting for survival knowing the only way they will reach the field of 68 is by winning their conference bracket.

In general, we tend to see unfamiliar venues for teams in the conference tournaments taking place in neutral locales, the pace tends to slow with defense rising to the fore in a playoff atmosphere and the pressure of last-minute situations with entire seasons on the line can get the best of even the best players. 

Unders are not uncommon. And there is at least one we really like for Thursday in conference tournament play.

Bowling Green vs Toledo – Under 152.5 (-110, everywhere)

The two regular-season meetings between these teams both went under, one by 11.5 points and the other by 1.5 points. Bowling Green takes a very deliberate approach to offense and they excel on defense. 

Bowling Green went under in 9 of 14 road/neutral setting games. They went under in seven of their final 10 games overall. They also went under in four of their last five road games. Toledo is under in seven of its last 10 games and four of its last five away from home. 

Toledo lives and dies with its ability to get balanced scoring but Bowling Green had the second-best defense in the Mid-American Conference and they should be able to limit the second-chance opportunities for Toledo on the boards.

Loyola (Chicago) vs Davidson – Davidson -6.5 (-110, Bet365)

Davidson has not been great covering games lately. Not as a dog or a favorite. With that acknowledged, they did cover easily in both meetings against Loyola. 

Loyola is playing some of its best ball of the season but their legs might be getting a little tired here and Davidson has the rest advantage. Loyola could not find good looks at the basket and get any offense going in both regular season meetings, held to just 64 points in both lopsided losses. They struggle to shoot the three ball, and are even worse defending the arc, 13th in three-point defense in the Atlantic 10 Conference. 

We project Davidson to be able score 75 points or more here, and that’s a big number for Loyola to be able to stay close enough to cover. Too many quality shooters for Davidson.