Is Bijan Robinson About to Break the Running Back Pay Ceiling?

Running backs, even the very best of the bunch in their prime, have had a difficult time pushing their salary ceilings at anything close to the rate of even safeties, let alone quarterbacks or wide receivers. 

Perhaps Atlanta superstar running back Bijan Robinson puts a dent in that.

The team has recently retained its other recent first-round picks on that side of the ball, putting a franchise tag on Kyle Pitts and getting receiver Drake London signed to a long-term deal. 

New head coach Kevin Stefanski is a little old school in ways, he wanted to run the football in heavy sets and overload the field with tight ends to complement his running backs, and that’s likely the same approach he is bringing to Atlanta, where, frankly, he has more front-office control than he had with the Browns.

Falcons Most Important Player

Stefanski ran his offense through halfback Nick Chubb, arguably the most complete back in the AFC at his height when he wasn’t injured, in Cleveland, and Robinson is even more twitchy and explosive than Chubb and has superior hands and route-running in the downfield passing game. 

Many execs around the league believe Atlanta’s prior coaching staff, and its suspect schematics and play calling on offense, in particular, tamped down the production of players like Robinson.

The top-of-the-market is lower for Robinson than what Atlanta faced at receiver for London, and other execs are assuming Robinson has a new contract before Week 1 as well. The issue with running backs is age, injury and flexibility in an offense; Robinson has been incredibly durable and checks every box.

“If you tagged Pitts and you extended London, that tells me Bijan is next,” one longtime NFL exec said. 

“He’s the best football player on that roster. Kevin knows that. You want him happy and ready to take on a heavy load. If you don’t have a quarterback, you'd better have everything else. That’s the approach they’re taking.”

Robinson does have more touches than anyone in the NFL over his three years in the league, the only player over 1000, which gives some pause. 

He also has produced 400 more scrimmage yards than any player in the league in that span, averaging nearly five yards per rush and nearly nine yards per catch despite that heavy workload.

Robinson, Derrick Henry (Baltimore) and Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit) are the only NFL players with 5000 scrimmage yards or more over the past three seasons. 

Gibbs is also in line for a contract extension, with his future payday and Robinson’s likely quite intertwined. 

“That’s the comp, similar players, same position, same point in their career,” the exec said.