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New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Preview: Odds, Tips & Prediction

The Patriots will be looking to clinch the AFC conference top spot and claim home-ground advantage throughout the playoffs. The Dolphins are playing for pride in a finale that should still deliver plenty of drama, and it will be widely priced on the best US betting sites with markets ranging from game odds to spreads, totals, and player props.

Ian Wanyeki

Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-12-30

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

7 minutes read

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Drake Maye #10 of the New England Patriots warms up

Drake Maye #10 warms up/ Getty Images

Table of Contents

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

Patriots: 3/20 (1.15) – 87%
Dolphins: 22/5 (5.40)- 18.5%
*Odds courtesy of Pinup, subject to change

How to Watch New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Date: Sunday, Jan 4th, 2026
Tip-Off Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: FOX
Records: New England Patriots (13-3), Miami Dolphins (7-9)

Head-to-Head Record

Last 5 meetings (NFL)

14/09/2025 Miami Dolphins 27-33 New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium
24/11/2024 Miami Dolphins 34-15 New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium
06/10/2024 New England Patriots 10-15 Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium
29/10/2023 Miami Dolphins 31-17 New England Patriots at Hard Rock Stadium
17/09/2023 New England Patriots 17-24 Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium

The Patriots vs. Dolphins rivalry has been played 120 times (including 3 postseason games), with the New England Patriots winning 56 games and the Miami Dolphins winning 64 games.

The Patriots are overwhelming favorites and are expected to thrash the Dolphins.

New England Patriots: Current Form - WWLWW

The Patriots have had a remarkable season so far. Their Offense is one of the most potent in the NFL. It’s young, explosive, and consistently improving. It ranks 5th in Points for (28.3 points per game), 3rd in Passing Yards with (252.8 yards per game), and 13th in Rushing Yards with (121.8 yards per game).

On the other hand, their defense has shown flashes of strength, ranking well in some categories like run-stop win rate, where they are (5th), and pass-rush win rates (top 10), but struggled in others, such as the run defense, which has witnessed significant dips in rush EPA and success rate.

New England Patriots Offense vs Miami Dolphins Defense

The Patriots run a modified “Erhardt-Perkins” offensive system, known for balancing the pass to score with the run to control the game. Under new head coach Mike Vrabel, they emphasize a well-rounded approach, using motion and play-action to create coverage conflicts for defenses. The team has a strong receiving corps and explosive running backs that have supported their MVP-contending quarterback, Drake Maye.

The Dolphins' defense, on the other hand, has evolved into a formidable force late in the 2025 season, particularly in critical moments, relying on better execution, improved tackling, and strategic blitzing to win games, despite still giving up yards overall.
However, the Patriots’ offense is simply too elite for the Dolphins’ defense.

Key Players to Watch

Drake Maye (Quarterback): Drake Maye’s production has taken a significant leap, and he is a major reason why the Patriots are battling atop the AFC standings. Maye has accumulated 30 touchdowns, 4203 passing yards, and eight interceptions.
TreVeyon Henderson (Running back): TreVeyon Henderson has been a surprise revelation for the Patriots. The rookie has tallied seven touchdowns and rushed for 858 yards.
Stefon Diggs (Wide Receiver): Stefon Diggs has consistently continued his positive production for the Patriots, registering four touchdowns, 82 receptions, and 970 receiving yards.

New England Patriots Injury Report

The Patriots will be without Kayshon Boutte, Marcus Bryant, Robert Spillane, Khyiris Tonga, Jared Wilson, and Harold Landry III.

They have enough replacements to maneuver this setback.

Miami Dolphins Form - WLLWW

Over the last five fixtures, the Dolphins have won 20-17 against the Buccaneers, 34-10 against the Jets, and 21-17 against the Saints, while they have also lost 45-21 against the Bengals and 28-15 against the Steelers.

The Dolphins’ offense is defined by its speed and creativity, but has been working on becoming a more balanced and consistent unit, extending drives and finishing in the red zone. Injuries and inconsistencies have really derailed their production, hence the average placing in the standings.

On the other hand, their defense, which was struggling with rushing defense and overall yardage allowed earlier in the season, has improved drastically. They rank 20th in the NFL in yards allowed and 11th in sacks.

Miami Dolphins Offense vs New England Patriots Defense

The Dolphins' offense has improved drastically over the course of the season. They have transformed from a poor run defense ranking (32nd early on) to a top-tier unit by late season. They are much better against the run, have excellent third-down performance, generating pressure, and key takeaways (sacks, interceptions).

The Patriots’ defense showed strength in run-stopping early in the season, ranking in the top 5 in yards/carry, but lately, they have struggled, ranking 7th in total defense by yards allowed at around 302 YPG.

This will be a high-octane encounter.

Key Players to Watch

Quinn Ewers (Quarterback): The replacement of starting Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been a hit despite only playing three games. The rookie has accumulated two touchdowns, 485 passing yards, and two interceptions.
Jaylen Waddle (Wide Receiver): Waddle is the standout receiver for the Dolphins after Tyreek Hill’s season-ending injury. He has racked up six touchdowns and 910 receiving yards on 64 receptions.
De'Von Achane (Running back): Achane is a vital part of the Dolphins’ running game, battling for every yard. He has accrued eight rushing touchdowns and 1,350 rushing yards on 238 carries.

Miami Dolphins Injury Report

The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill (knee), K.J. Britt (groin), Jordyn Brooks (hamstring), Chop Robinson (concussion), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (coach’s decision), Aaron Brewer (neck), Derrick McLendon, Kendall Lamm, and Minkah Fitzpatrick.

These injuries will be highly significant in this contest.

Predicted Line-Ups (Offense & Defense)

New England Patriots

Offense:

QB: Drake Maye
RB: TreVeyon Henderson
WR: Stefon Diggs, Efton Chism III, and Mack Hollins
TE: Hunter Henry
OL: Jack Westover, Vederian Lowe, Ben Brown, Garrett Bradbury, Mike Onwenu, and Morgan Moses

Defense:

DE: Christian Barmore and Cory Durden
DT: Eric Gregory
LB: Elijah Ponder, Jack Gibbens, Christian Elliss, K’Lavon Chaisson, and Marcus Jones
CB: Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez
S: Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson

Miami Dolphins

Offense:

QB: Quinn Ewers
RB: De'Von Achane
WR: Jaylen Waddle, Malik Washington, and Cedrick Wilson Jr.
TE: Darren Waller
OL: Alec Ingold, Patrick Paul, Jonah Savaiinaea, Andrew Meyer, Cole Strange, and Austin Jackson

Defense:

DE: Chop Robinson and Bradley Chubb
DT: Zach Sieler and Zeek Biggers
LB: Willie Gay Jr., Tyrel Dodson, Cameron Goode, and Rasul Douglas
CB: Jack Jones and Jason Marshall Jr.
S: Ashtyn Davis and Ifeatu Melifonwu

Suggested Main Bets

These angles are usually easy to find on NFL betting sites. It’s worth comparing prices before you lock anything in, since prop numbers and parlay odds can move quickly based on late-week injury updates.

Patriots to Win: The Patriots will be looking to get a win in Week 18, as they seek to claim the top seed in the AFC playoff picture and, more so, to earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Patriots to Cover a -10 Point Spread: The Patriots are likely to exert pressure due to their aspiration to win in this game, which may lead to a substantial gap between the points achieved.
Total Points: Under 45.5: The Patriots are expected to place the proverbial foot on the gas while the Miami Dolphins will try to put up an extra fight in a bid to exert a spoiler move. As a result, the game may end in fewer than 45.5 points.

Prop Bets & Same-Game Parlay Ideas

Drake Maye: Over 2 Touchdowns – After delivering five touchdowns in the matchup against the Jets, Maye is expected to play exceedingly well in this game, making this prop achievable.
Treveyon Henderson: Over 60.5 rushing yards – After rushing for 82 yards in the game against the Jets and rushing for more than 60 yards in four of the last five games, Henderson will most likely fulfill this bet.

Expert Prediction

In Week 2, the Patriots won over the Dolphins in their home field. Their focus will be to achieve a clean season sweep, given that a win over the Dolphins will not only thrust the Patriots to 5-1 in 2025 division games, but it will also come with enviable rewards such as a bye week and a top seed in the playoffs.

Ian WanyekiSports Writer

Ian Wanyeki is a Nairobi-based sports journalist with a strong passion for sport and an impressive grasp of multiple disciplines. A Bachelor of Science graduate from Kenyatta University, he has worked as a sports analyst at Covenant Television Network, a sports reporter at NTV, and a correspondent and contributor for Quartz Africa.