Betting
Patriots vs Bills Preview: Odds, Tips, and Prediction Dec 14, 2025
Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025 Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts) Referee: N/A Last Meeting: Buffalo Bills 20-23 New England Patriots (October 5th, 2025 | NFL) SportsBoom previews the NFL match between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, on Sunday, December 14th, 2025. The stakes for both teams couldn’t be more crucial before kickoff. Read our well-analyzed preview and expert prediction to better understand this match. The Patriots are locked in a tight race with the Denver Broncos for the AFC Conference title. Both teams boast a similar record of 11 wins and two losses. The Broncos hold the top seed by virtue of a conference record (7-2) that is a half-game better, and the Bills are currently fifth in the AFC Conference standings with a record of (9-4), which is sufficient for the first Wild Card position.
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Drake Maye/ Getty Images
Odds and Betting Tips
Odds courtesy of DraftKings, subject to change
- Home: 91/100 (1.91) – 52.4%
- Away: 89/100 (1.89)- 52.9%
*Odds courtesy of PinUp, subject to change
Betting Tips
Here are my expert tips if you want to bet on NFL.
- Patriots to Win: This will be a hotly contested game, and the Bills will aggressively chase the win. Despite being considered underdogs, overwhelmingly, the Patriots will be aiming for an outright win, given that this is a home game and they will be returning from a bye week (50.8% probability with Stake)
- Patriots to cover the 1.5 Point Spread: Coming from a bye, the Patriots are well prepared for this game. Moreover, they are capable of countering Buffalo’s rushing attack, and if able to exploit the opponent's minimal mistakes, the Patriots will cover the spread (55.9% probability with PinUp)
- Total Points: Under 49.5 Points: This will most likely be a high-scoring game with a high probability of not surpassing the 50-point mark. Both teams will focus on puffing up their numbers, aiming for a win.
Head-to-Head Record
Last five meetings (NFL)
- 1
05/10/2025 Buffalo Bills 20-23 New England Patriots
- 2
05/01/2025 New England Patriots 23-16 Buffalo Bills
- 3
22/12/2024 Buffalo Bills 24-21 New England Patriots
- 4
31/12/2023 Buffalo Bills 27-21 New England Patriots
- 5
23/10/2023 New England Patriots 29-25 Buffalo Bills
New England Patriots: Current Form- WWWWW
New England Patriots entered their bye week with a record of 11-2 and are top of the AFC East standings. A Patriots win over the Bills would clinch the division for New England, as they have a 2.5 game lead, and with a win, the worst the team can finish is 12-5.
The Patriots would also hold the tiebreaker over Buffalo, given the fact that they would have swept the Bills in the season series.
The Patriots have had a remarkable season so far. They have claimed impressive victories with their most recent being a 33-15 victory against the New York Giants, a 26-20 win against the Cincinnati Bengals, a 27-14 victory against the New York Jets, a 28-23 victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and a narrow 24-23 win against the Atlanta Falcons.
Head coach Mike Vrabel will, however, be wary of the Bills, who are one of the favorites to claim the AFC title as they boast a battle-hardened squad and the best football player in the world in Josh Allen.
Key Players to Watch
- Drake Maye (Quarterback)
Drake Maye is having a second season to remember. His production has taken a significant leap, and he is a major reason why the Patriots are battling atop the AFC standings. Maye has accumulated 23 touchdowns and 3412 passing yards on a 71.5% completion rate and only six interceptions. - TreVeyon Henderson (Running back)
TreVeyon Henderson has been a surprise revelation for the Patriots. The rookie has tallied five touchdowns and rushed for 625 yards. - Stefon Diggs (Wide Receiver)
Stefon Diggs has consistently continued his positive production for the Patriots, registering three touchdowns, 64 receptions, and 705 receiving yards. It’s, however, his leadership that has been integral to a young Patriots team that has taken the league by storm.
New England Patriots Team News
The Patriots will be without defensive back Brenden Schooler and offensive lineman Jared Wilson, who are both out with ankle injuries.
Buffalo Bills: Current Form- WWLWL
The Bills have begun to peak just about the right time with the postseason looming. With the Kansas Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens faltering, they are expected to make a deep playoff run, considering they are one of the most experienced teams in the AFC.
The Bills are at risk of surrendering their five-season AFC East winning streak to the Patriots, although a win on Sunday will bring them back into contention.
The Bills' recent results have witnessed them win 39-34 against the Cincinnati Bengals, 26-7 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-32, while losing 23-19 to the Houston Texans and 30-13 to the Miami Dolphins.
Head coach Sean McDermott provided an encouraging squad update on Monday, and emphasized the need to finish the season on a high note to carry the form into the playoffs.
Key Players to Watch
- Josh Allen (Quarterback)
What more is there to say about Josh Allen that hasn’t been said? The reigning MVP is once again carrying the Bills team singlehandedly with otherworldly performances to boot. Allen has accumulated 22 touchdowns and 3083 passing yards on a 70.1% completion rate and ten interceptions. - James Cook (Running back)
Aside from his recent fumbling yards, James Cook has been an elusive battering ram for the Bills. The fourth-year running back has eight touchdowns and has attempted 249 rushes for 1308 yards. - Khalil Shakir (Wide Receiver)
Khalil Shakir’s connection with Josh Allen is just poetic. The speedster has accrued four touchdowns, 57 receptions, and 585 receiving yards.
Buffalo Bills Team News
The Bills will be without linebacker Terrel Bernard, who suffered an elbow injury, and defensive tackle Joey Bosa, who injured his hamstring. Wide receiver Josh Palmer is a doubt after not practicing with the team due to a knee injury.
Predicted Line-ups
New England Patriots
Offense:
- QB: Drake Maye
- RB: TreVeyon Henderson
- WR: Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, and Mack Hollins
- TE: Hunter Henry
- OL: Jack Westover, Vederian Lowe, Ben Brown, Garrett Bradbury, Mike Onwenu, and Morgan Moses
Defense:
- DE: Christian Barmore and Cory Durden
- DT: Eric Gregory
- LB: Harold Landry III, Robert Spillane, Christian Elliss, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Marcus Jones
- CB: Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez
- S: Jaylinn Hawkins and Craig Woodson
Buffalo Bills
Offense:
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: James Cook III
- WR: Khalil Shakir, Tyrell Shavers, and Gabe Davis
- TE: Dalton Kincaid
- OL: Reggie Gilliam, Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O'Cyrus Torrence, and Tylan Grable
Defense:
- DE: Greg Rousseau and Javon Solomon
- DT: Deone Walker and DaQuan Jones
- LB: Matt Milano, Shaq Thompson, Dorian Williams, and Taron Johnson
- CB: Tre'Davious White and Christian Benford
- S: Jordan Poyer and Cole Bishop
Value Bets
These value bets should be available across leading US sportsbooks, so it’s worth line-shopping to secure the best possible odds
Drake Maye to make over 20.5 pass completions: In the last five games, Drake has made over 21 passing completions in three out of five games. The Patriots’ expected aggressiveness and intensive play in this home game will drive May to achieve this target.
Andy Borregales to Score over 6.5 kicking Points: In this season, Borregales has accumulated 109 kicking points. He has an average of 8.9 games per season, making this bet a hit target.
Prediction:
The Patriots’ defense is advanced and top-ranked, making it well-equipped to trigger friction against the Bills’ run, which they majorly enjoy doing with the football. The Bills have not been locking down their opponents sufficiently, and if that happens in this game, the Patriots will undoubtedly win.
Ian Mugo Wanyeki is based in Nairobi, Kenya. He is a sports enthusiast with vast knowledge of different sport disciplines. Ian is a graduate with a Bachelor’s of Science degree from Kenyatta University. He is a Kenyan journalist who’s worked as a sports analyst at Covenant Television Network, as a sports reporter at NTV and as a Sports Correspondent/contributor at Quartz Africa.