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Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Preview: Tips, Odds, & Prediction

Date: Monday, 19th January 2026 Start time: 7 pm local time (3 am BST) Venue: Chase Center, San Francisco TV/Streaming: NBC Sports Bay Area, Prime Video, DAZN, NBA League Pass Records: Miami Heat 20-18, Golden State Warriors 21-18 The Miami Heat travel to the San Francisco Bay Area to face the Golden State Warriors. At the time of writing, both teams are eighth in the East and West, meaning both must secure victories to try and make up ground for the playoffs. Which side will win? We’ll encourage you to take advantage of these online NBA betting sites, renowned for providing new customers with excellent opportunities to land big wins.

Henry Cheal
Henry Cheal
Sports Writer

Last updated: 2026-01-12

Chad Nagel
Sports & Betting Editor

5 minutes read

SportsBoom offers honest and impartial bookmaker reviews to help you make informed choices. While we may earn commissions through affiliate links, our content remains independent and free from promotional influence. For more information, see our Content Transparency and How We Review pages.

Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors!

Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors!

Table of Contents
  • Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
  • Head-to-Head Record
  • Last 5 Matches
  • Miami Heat Form & Key Stats – WLWLL
  • Golden State Warriors Form & Key Stats – LWLWW
  • Predicted Line-Ups
  • Value Bets
  • Why the Golden State Warriors Can Win
  • Expert Prediction

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

  1. Miami Heat: 6/4 (2.50) – 40.0%

  2. Golden State Warriors: 4/7 (1.57) – 60.0%

  3. Forecast odds – Betting available on bet365 closer to event

Head-to-Head Record

Throughout NBA regular-season history, the Golden State Warriors and Miami Heat have played 74 games. As it stands, neither team can be separated, as both organizations have prevailed on 37 separate occasions.

Last 5 Matches

SeasonDateResult
2025-26 SeasonNovember 19, 2025Miami Heat 110-96 Golden State Warriors
2024-25 SeasonMarch 25, 2025Miami Heat 112-86 Golden State Warriors
2024-25 SeasonJanuary 7, 2025Miami Heat 114-98 Golden State Warriors
2023-24 SeasonMarch 26, 2024Golden State Warriors 113-92 Miami Heat
2023-24 SeasonDecember 28, 2023Miami Heat 114-102 Golden State Warriors
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Miami Heat Form & Key Stats – WLWLL

Record

Home Form

Road Form

20-18

13-6

7-12

The Miami Heat’s form has dwindled, losing two games in a row at the time of writing. The organization’s home form is one of the best in the league, but their form on the road explains why they are positioned eighth in the East. For this game against Golden State, it’s important to note that they are traveling west. 

Miami Heat Offense vs. Golden State Warriors Defense

Despite holding a 20-18 record, Miami ranks among the NBA’s most efficient teams in ball movement, averaging 28.4 assists per game. That figure places them seventh league-wide and underlines their ability to create offense through unselfish play.
The Heat’s scoring power is one of their strengths, averaging an impressive 119.6 points per game, ranking fifth in the league based on this metric. This is something that carries extra significance against the Warriors for this matchup. 

Key Players to Watch

  • Norman Powell (Guard) – Powell leads the team in scoring this season, averaging a career-high 23.8 points per game. The 32-year-old is playing as a key starter for the first time in his career, and it appears to be paying off on offense.  
  • Tyler Herro (Guard) – Herro has returned from his injury, which is a big plus for Miami. He’s averaging 22.1 points per game, but will undoubtedly improve as he’s one of the most consistent shooters in the league.   
  • Bam Adebayo (Center) – While Adebayo is averaging only 16.8 points per game, numbers that are his worst since his third NBA season, his defensive consistency remains ever so important. His 9.6 rebounds per game place him as one of the best rebounders in the league. 

Injury Report

Terry Rozier – Out (immediate leave)

Golden State Warriors Form & Key Stats – LWLWW

Record

Home Form

Road Form

21-18

13-5

8-13

The Golden State Warriors’ recent run of form from the last ten games stands at 7-3, placing them closer to the higher seeds in the playoffs. They shouldn’t be discounted by any means, but the franchise is very much in jeopardy due to their lack of a standout shooter to work alongside Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler III. 

Golden State Warriors – Offense vs Miami Heat Defense

The Warriors are 19th in the points per game averages, producing 115.5 per game. They were lower in the table at the start of the season but are now slowly improving after a tough start to the season. Apart from Curry, the Warriors don’t have much scoring power on offense, highlighting that plenty needs to be done in the final phase.

That said, the Warriors are one of the most team-first rosters in the league, ranking eighth with an average of 28.4 assists per game. This figure is identical to that of their opponents, the Miami Heat, making it an even more intriguing matchup.

Key Players to Watch

  • Stephen Curry (Guard) – At 37 years of age, Stephen Curry is still going strong and producing incredible numbers. He’s averaging 28.7 points per game, which are his highest numbers since 2023. You’d think his best days are behind him, but he’s still the heart and soul of the Warriors organization. 
  • Jimmy Butler III (Forward) – Butler’s truly settled into life in San Francisco as he faces his old team. This season, he’s averaging 19.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game, numbers that show his important role on both sides of the ball. 
  • Draymond Green (Forward) – Green is averaging 8.7 points per game, which is in line with his career averages. However, his defensive ability and playmaking offer a different dimension to the Warriors, as he also averages 5.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game.

Injury Report

  • Seth Curry – Out (sciatic nerve issue in lower back)
  • L.J. Cryer – Out (low back strain)

Predicted Line-Ups

  1. Miami Heat

    Guard: Davion Mitchell
    Guard: Tyler Herro
    Center: Bam Adebayo
    Forward: Norman Powell 
    Forward: Andrew Wiggins 

  2. Golden State Warriors

    Guard: Stephen Curry 
    Guard: Pat Spencer
    Center: Al Horford 
    Forward: Draymond Green
    Forward: Jimmy Butler III

Value Bets

If you’re placing these picks, compare lines and prices across online US betting sites to see who offers the best value before tip-off.

  1. Total Points: Under 242.5: In recent times, matches between the Heat and the Warriors haven’t been high-scoring matches.  

  2. Stephen Curry to post at least 25 points: Curry always produces the goods against the Heat. This is shown by his recent stats, as he’s averaged 23.4 points per game in his last five games. Based on his stats this season, we expect him to produce over 25 points. 

  3. Warriors to Win: The Warriors’ home form should give them the edge.  

Why the Golden State Warriors Can Win

  • The Warriors’ home form should give them the edge, especially when the Heat’s form on the road is one of the worst in the league.  
  • Stephen Curry is playing at a very high level right now. 
  • The Warriors have a better run of form ahead of this encounter. 

Expert Prediction:

Despite losing the last three games, we predict the Golden State Warriors to win this game. The Miami Heat’s recent form and record on the road aren’t that good, and the Warriors use their home court to their advantage in games like this. This will be a very interesting game given their standings in their respective divisions, but the Warriors should prevail. 

Henry Cheal
Henry ChealSports Writer

Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.

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Table of Contents
  • Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
  • Head-to-Head Record
  • Last 5 Matches
  • Miami Heat Form & Key Stats – WLWLL
  • Golden State Warriors Form & Key Stats – LWLWW
  • Predicted Line-Ups
  • Value Bets
  • Why the Golden State Warriors Can Win
  • Expert Prediction
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