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NBA: Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Preview: Odds, Tips & Prediction

Miami has a 17-15 overall record and 11-5 at home, while Minnesota has a 20-12 record and an 8-6 away record. Both teams will be looking to climb the standings in their respective conferences and build momentum as the season approaches its midpoint, making this a spot many fans will bet on NBA games through moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

Ian Wanyeki
Ian Wanyeki
Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-12-30

Chad Nagel
Sports & Betting Editor

6 minutes read

SportsBoom offers honest and impartial bookmaker reviews to help you make informed choices. While we may earn commissions through affiliate links, our content remains independent and free from promotional influence. For more information, see our Content Transparency and How We Review pages.

Anthony Edwards dunks the ball /Getty Images

Anthony Edwards dunks the ball /Getty Images

Table of Contents
  • Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
  • How to Watch
  • Head-to-Head Record
  • Miami Heat: Current Form- WWLLL
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: Current Form - LLWWW
  • Predicted Line-Ups
  • Suggested Main Bets
  • Prop Bets & Same-Game Parlay Ideas
  • Why the Timberwolves Can Win
  • Expert Prediction

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

  1. Miami Heat: 13/8 (2.63) – 38.1%

  2. Minnesota Timberwolves: 4/7 (1.57) – 63.6%

    Forecast odds – Betting available on Betway closer to the event. 

How to Watch Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Date: Saturday, Jan 3rd, 2026 
  • Tip-Off Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida
  • TV: NBA TV
  • Streaming: Stream with NBA League Pass
  • Records: Miami Heat (17-15), Minnesota Timberwolves (20-12)

Head-to-Head Record

Last 5 meetings (NFL)

  • 07/03/2025 Miami Heat 104-106 Minnesota Timberwolves at Kaseya Center
  • 10/11/2024 Minnesota Timberwolves 95-94 Miami Heat at Target Center
  • 18/12/2023 Miami Heat 108-112 Minnesota Timberwolves at Kaseya Center
  • 28/10/2023 Minnesota Timberwolves 90-106 Miami Heat at Target Center
  • 26/12/2022 Miami Heat 113-110 Minnesota Timberwolves at Kaseya Center

The Heat and the Minnesota Timberwolves have played 70 games in the regular season, with 36 victories for the Heat and 34 for the Timberwolves.

Miami Heat: Current Form- WWLLL

The Miami Heat have won two games against the Pacers, 142-116 and 126-111 against the Hawks. Before this, they had lost to the Raptors 112-91, the Knicks 132-125, and to the Celtics 129-116. It’s key to note that before this contest, they will have played against the Nuggets and Pistons.

The Heat offense is a unique, fast-paced, “read-and-react” system that dramatically minimizes traditional pick-and-roll plays in favor of floor spacing, quick decision-making, and aggressive, straight-line drives to the basket. It ranks top six in points per game with 122 points per game, 1st in pace, top seven in assists with 29, second in points in the paint, and top 14 in field goal percentage with 48%.

On the other hand, they have a defensive rating of 112.0, which ranks 4th in the league, 3rd in defensive rebounds with 34.9, seventh in steals with 9.2, and 20th in blocks with 4.5. 

Miami Heat Offense vs Minnesota Timberwolves Defense

The Heat offense focuses heavily on drives to the basket, isolation plays, and spot-ups, contrasting their past reliance on pick-and-rolls, with players like Norman Powell, Bam Adebayo, and Andrew Wiggins leading scoring efforts, supported by efficient shooting from role players like Simone Fontecchio & Pelle Larsson. This is a “philosophical declaration” intended to keep the defense off-balance.

The Timberwolves' defense possesses championship-level talent both on the post and perimeter, but they need to find consistency and reduce their reliance on Rudy Gobert to consistently perform as one of the NBA's best units.

Key Players to Watch

  • Bam Adebayo (Center): Bam is the centerpiece of the Heat franchise. His tenacity and toughness set the standard for the entire team, and his inside scoring and efficient scoring are a team’s reference. He is averaging 18 points per game, 9.5 rebounds, a steal, and 0.9 blocks per game.
  • Andrew Wiggins (Small Forward): Wiggins is a versatile scorer with a good field goal percentage. He is a reliable defender and offers an athletic presence on both ends of the floor. He is averaging 16.4 points per game.
  • Norman Powell (Shooting Guard): Norman Powell is the team’s best player this season. He is the Heat’s go-to scorer and clutch x-factor. He is averaging 23.7 points per game.

Miami Heat Injury Report

Tyler Herro will be out as he is still rehabilitating his toe injury, and Terry Rozier was placed on immediate leave by the NBA back in October.

These absentees are highly significant to the team’s victory chances.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Current Form - LLWWW

The Timberwolves lost two games against the Nets, 123-107, and the Nuggets, 142-138, overtime, while they have won against the Knicks, 115-104, the Bucks, 103-100, and the Thunder, 112-107. It’s key to note that before this contest, they will have played two games against the Bulls and Hawks.
The Timberwolves rank 12th in points per game with 119.8, 12th in assists per game, 4th overall in Three-point percentage, and 7th overall in Field goal percentage. Minnesota also has a Top-7 offensive rating in the NBA.

On the other hand, their defense has a defensive rating of 112.7, which is 8th in the league. They are 12th in steals with 8.6, 9th in blocks with 5.2, and 11th in defensive rebounding with 32.7 per game.

Minnesota Timberwolves Offense vs Miami Heat Defense

The Timberwolves' offense generates high-percentage looks and converts them efficiently, although they are prone to erratic tendencies. They have focused on picking up the pace and utilizing “next-action basketball” with accelerated decision-making to generate better looks before the defense can set.

Miami’s defense runs a zone defense around 14% of the time, utilizing trap-heavy tactics and matching up in a proactive, aggressive 2-3 zone that limits opponents’ points per possession more effectively than their man-to-man coverage. Their system is designed to “make opponents see different coverages.”

Key Players to Watch

  • Anthony Edwards (Shooting Guard): Anthony Edwards is the team’s primary offensive engine and leading scorer. He is the franchise player and one of the superstars in the NBA. “Ant Man” is averaging 29.3 points per game.
  • Julius Randle (Power Forward): Randle is Edwards’ Robin and the second-best player on the team. He has significantly improved his efficiency and assist-to-turnover ratio by being more decisive and attacking the post effectively. He is averaging 22.6 points per game and seven rebounds.
  • Rudy Gobert (Center): Rudy Gobert anchors the Timberwolves' defense and is a beast on the boards. The “Stifle Tower” is averaging 11.3 points per game, 11 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks per game.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report

Terrence Shannon Jr. underwent an MRI that revealed a left foot abductor hallucis strain and will be re-evaluated in two weeks.

This injury isn’t detrimental to the team’s success.

Predicted Line-Ups

  1. Miami Heat

    Point Guard: Davion Mitchell
    Shooting Guard: Pelle Larsson
    Small Forward: Norman Powell
    Power Forward: Andrew Wiggins
    Center: Bam Adebayo

  2. Minnesota Timberwolves

    Point Guard:  Donte DiVincenzo
    Shooting Guard: Anthony Edwards
    Small Forward: Jaden McDaniels
    Power Forward: Julius Randle
    Center: Rudy Gobert

Suggested Main Bets

Before locking in these picks, it’s worth comparing prices on betting sites in the USA, since the moneyline and total can move quickly with late injury news and lineup changes

  1. Timberwolves to Win – The Timberwolves will claim victory, although the Heat will not roll over and accept the whooping. This game tends to be closely fought

  2. Total Points: Over 215.5 – The Timberwolves offense is driven by the scoring prowess and accelerated decision-making of its star players, particularly Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. It ranks top six in points per game with 122 points per game, 1st in pace. Therefore, this bet is achievable.

Prop Bets & Same-Game Parlay Ideas

Bam Adebayo to Score Over 16.5 points – Adebayo has been averaging 18 points per game, and in this hotly contested game, he is expected to hover around this point mark. 

Why the Timberwolves Can Win

The Timberwolves have a clean bill of health, while the Heat are without key players.
Edwards is clearly playing at an All-NBA level, and it will be hard to defend against him.
The away team has been dominant in recent contests between these teams.

Timberwolves have better balance with their offense and defense, while the Heat are more defensive dominant than offensive dominant. 

Expert Prediction 

If recent history is any indicator, expect a close game when the Heat welcome the Wolves to South Beach. Each of their last three meetings has been decided by four points or less, with the road team winning each game. Nonetheless, there is a slightly high chance for the Timberwolves to capture victory. 

Ian Wanyeki
Ian WanyekiSports Writer

Ian Wanyeki is a Nairobi-based sports journalist with a strong passion for sport and an impressive grasp of multiple disciplines. A Bachelor of Science graduate from Kenyatta University, he has worked as a sports analyst at Covenant Television Network, a sports reporter at NTV, and a correspondent and contributor for Quartz Africa.

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Table of Contents
  • Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
  • How to Watch
  • Head-to-Head Record
  • Miami Heat: Current Form- WWLLL
  • Minnesota Timberwolves: Current Form - LLWWW
  • Predicted Line-Ups
  • Suggested Main Bets
  • Prop Bets & Same-Game Parlay Ideas
  • Why the Timberwolves Can Win
  • Expert Prediction
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