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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Monday, 29th December 2025 Start time: 7:30 pm local time (12:30 am BST) Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida Last regular season meeting: November 5, 2025, Denver Nuggets 122-112 Miami Heat The Eastern Conference’s Miami Heat hosts the Western Conference side, the Denver Nuggets. The Heat are in contention for the lower playoff seeds, but the Nuggets are in contention to win the Western Conference. Which roster is the favorite to win according to the top US betting sites? Let’s find out!

Henry Cheal

Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-12-23

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

5 minutes read

SportsBoom offers honest and impartial bookmaker reviews to help you make informed choices. While we may earn commissions through affiliate links, our content remains independent and free from promotional influence. For more information, see our Content Transparency and How We Review pages.

Nikola Jokić #15 of the Denver Nuggets warms up before the game against the Indiana Pacers

Nikola Jokić #15 /Getty Images

Table of Contents

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability:

Miami Heat: 9/4 (3.25) – 30.8%
Denver Nuggets: 2/5 (1.40) – 71.4%
Forecast odds – Betting available on bet365 closer to event

Head-to-Head Record

Throughout NBA history, the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have faced off in just 77 regular-season games. The Heat have won 34 of those matchups, while the Nuggets have won 43, including an active 11-game winning streak.

Last 5 Matches:

Season	Date	Result
2025-26 Season	November 5, 2025	Denver Nuggets 122-112 Miami Heat
2024-25 Season	January 17, 2025	Denver Nuggets 133-113 Miami Heat
2024-25 Season	November 8, 2024	Denver Nuggets 135-122 Miami Heat
2023-24 Season	March 13, 2024	Denver Nuggets 100-88 Miami Heat
2022-23 Season	February 29, 2024	Denver Nuggets 103-97 Miami Heat

Miami Heat – LLWLL (Last Five Results)

Record	Home Form	Road Form
15-14	10-4	5-10

The Miami Heat’s home record places them as one of the best in the Eastern Conference. But, away from home, the organization has one of the worst away records, explaining their just above .500 record at the time of writing.

The franchise has an impressive offense, averaging 120.2 points per game, which ranks them as the fifth-best team in the NBA. Despite this, they are ranked 21st on free-throw percentage, which is a crucial part of their game that needs addressing. What explains their impressive scoring averages per game is their shooting ability from distance, converting 48.6% of three-point shots.

Miami Heat – Offense vs Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets must find ways to restrict the Heat’s offense where possible due to their high shooting averages per game. Miami’s key offseason addition saw them secure the services of Norman Powell from the Los Angeles Clippers, a move that has seen the 32-year-old post his highest points per game averages in his career. His 24 points per game are the highest on their roster, and he’s tied 18th in the league. He will be a tough opponent to defend against.

Key Players to Watch

Normal Powell (Guard) – As already stated, Powell is their best offensive operator this season. His numbers are impressive, but he must stay fit if the Heat wishes to be competitive.
Bam Adebayo (Center) – Adebayo is their best player and arguably one of the best in his position in the league. Averaging a consistent 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds a game, he’s showing once again his quality.
Andrew Wiggins (Forward) – Wiggins is a key starter for the Heat after his trade move with the Golden State Warriors last season. He’s averaging a solid 15.7 points per game, but he’s gelling well into his new chapter.

Injury Report:

Tyler Herro – Out (toe)
Pelle Larsson – Out (sprained left ankle)
Nikola Jovic – Out (elbow)
Terry Rozier – Out (immediate leave)

Denver Nuggets – LWWLW (Last Five Results)

Record	Home Form	Road Form
20-7	8-5	12-2

The Denver Nuggets have established themselves as one of the best teams in the NBA, as they are currently ranked third overall in the Western Conference.

To back their strong showing so far this season, they are the clear leaders in the points per game averages, averaging 124.7. When shooting field goals, the Nuggets are on top, too, converting 51.3% of attempts.

Despite these impressive offensive metrics, the Nuggets are ranked 16th in the league in rebounding. These numbers are worrying from a defensive side, which would explain why they have lost seven matches this season.

Denver Nuggets – Offense vs Miami Heat Defense

We’ve already shown how much quality the Heat has on offense, but the Nuggets have statistically the best in the league, making this a very difficult challenge for the Heat. The Heat are ranked seventh in the NBA in rebounds per game averages, meaning they need replicated performances from their starting five to stop the Nuggets’ offense where possible.

Key Players to Watch

Nikola Jokic (Center) – Jokic is simply the best player in the NBA, averaging a triple-double this season. Yes, you read that right—29.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game. He's the fifth-highest scorer and statistically the best rebounder and playmaker in the league. Quite simply, a cut above the rest.
Jamal Murray (Guard) – In his ninth NBA season, Murray is propping up the best numbers of his career. He’s averaging 24/8 points and 6.7 assists, both career-best stats, as he shows why he is a threat on offense.
Aaron Gordon (Forward) – Although he’s injured, Gordon has also stepped up too. He’s averaging 18.8 points per game, his highest scoring average ever. But his presence is missed on defense because he’s averaging the second-highest number of rebounds on the team, posting 5.9 per game.

Injury Report:

Aaron Gordon – Out (hamstring)
Christian Braun – Out (ankle)
Peyton Watson – Out (side)

Predicted Line-Ups

Miami Heat
Guard: Davion Mitchell
Guard: Normal Powell
Center: Bam Adebayo
Forward: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Forward: Andrew Wiggins
Denver Nuggets
Guard: Jamal Murray
Guard: Cameron Johnson
Center: Nikola Jokic
Forward: Spencer Jones
Forward: Tim Hardaway Jr.

Value Bets

We’ve tested some of the best NBA betting sites, providing opportunities for new bettors to secure significant financial returns.

Total Points: Over 241.5: With both teams having some of the best offenses in the league, we predict their combined scoring averages could push past 241.5 total points.
Nuggets to Win: The Nuggets are locked in a playoff battle in the West and have an 11-game winning streak against the Heat
Nikola Jokic to post at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists: Nikola Jokic has posted a triple-double in six of his last seven games against the Miami Heat. Therefore, we predict him to produce another similar performance.

Why the Denver Nuggets can win

Nikola Jokic’s displays in offense and defense have captured the imagination of the public.
The Heat has not defeated the Nuggets in over five years.
The Nuggets have a stronger offense.

Expert Prediction: Denver Nuggets to Win

The Denver Nuggets will go into this match as the clear favorites because of their winning run. This is why I conclude this preview, predicting them to win. The Heat’s offense is strong, but the Nuggets’ recent form over the Heat is an impressive streak, and we believe they will continue that form in this game.

Henry ChealSports Writer

Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.

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Table of Contents

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Henry Cheal

Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-12-23

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

5 minutes read

Nikola Jokić #15 /Getty Images

Miami Heat – LLWLL (Last Five Results)

Record	Home Form	Road Form
15-14	10-4	5-10

Miami Heat – Offense vs Denver Nuggets

Key Players to Watch

Normal Powell (Guard) – As already stated, Powell is their best offensive operator this season. His numbers are impressive, but he must stay fit if the Heat wishes to be competitive.
Bam Adebayo (Center) – Adebayo is their best player and arguably one of the best in his position in the league. Averaging a consistent 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds a game, he’s showing once again his quality.
Andrew Wiggins (Forward) – Wiggins is a key starter for the Heat after his trade move with the Golden State Warriors last season. He’s averaging a solid 15.7 points per game, but he’s gelling well into his new chapter.

Injury Report:

Tyler Herro – Out (toe)
Pelle Larsson – Out (sprained left ankle)
Nikola Jovic – Out (elbow)
Terry Rozier – Out (immediate leave)

Denver Nuggets – LWWLW (Last Five Results)

Record	Home Form	Road Form
20-7	8-5	12-2

The Denver Nuggets have established themselves as one of the best teams in the NBA, as they are currently ranked third overall in the Western Conference.

Denver Nuggets – Offense vs Miami Heat Defense

Key Players to Watch

Nikola Jokic (Center) – Jokic is simply the best player in the NBA, averaging a triple-double this season. Yes, you read that right—29.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game. He's the fifth-highest scorer and statistically the best rebounder and playmaker in the league. Quite simply, a cut above the rest.
Jamal Murray (Guard) – In his ninth NBA season, Murray is propping up the best numbers of his career. He’s averaging 24/8 points and 6.7 assists, both career-best stats, as he shows why he is a threat on offense.
Aaron Gordon (Forward) – Although he’s injured, Gordon has also stepped up too. He’s averaging 18.8 points per game, his highest scoring average ever. But his presence is missed on defense because he’s averaging the second-highest number of rebounds on the team, posting 5.9 per game.

Injury Report:

Aaron Gordon – Out (hamstring)
Christian Braun – Out (ankle)
Peyton Watson – Out (side)

Value Bets

We’ve tested some of the best NBA betting sites, providing opportunities for new bettors to secure significant financial returns.

Total Points: Over 241.5: With both teams having some of the best offenses in the league, we predict their combined scoring averages could push past 241.5 total points.

Nuggets to Win: The Nuggets are locked in a playoff battle in the West and have an 11-game winning streak against the Heat

Nikola Jokic to post at least 25 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists: Nikola Jokic has posted a triple-double in six of his last seven games against the Miami Heat. Therefore, we predict him to produce another similar performance.

Expert Prediction: Denver Nuggets to Win