Betting
Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder Preview: Odds, Tips & Predictions
Date: Sunday 11th January 2026 Start time: 6 pm local time (12 am BST) Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City TV/Streaming: Prime Video, DAZN, NBA League Pass Records: Oklahoma City Thunder 30-5, Miami Heat 19-16 The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Miami Heat in this Sunday evening’s NBA matchup. The reigning NBA champions face the eighth seed in the East. Both teams will look to win, but will the Heat be able to stop the most dominant team in the NBA of late? I recommend these betting sites in the USA, which are known for giving new customers generous opportunities.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander / Getty Images
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability:
- Oklahoma City Thunder: 8/11 (1.73) – 57.8%
- Miami Heat: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
- Forecast odds – Betting available on bet365 closer to event
Head-to-Head Record
This matchup between Eastern and Western Conference teams has seen only 74 regular-season games in NBA history. The Oklahoma City Thunder have produced the most wins, prevailing on 44 occasions compared to the Heat’s 30 victories.
Last Five Matches
| Season | Date | Result |
| 2024-25 Season | February 12, 2025 | Oklahoma City Thunder 115-101 Miami Heat |
| 2024-25 Season | December 20, 2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder 104-97 Miami Heat |
| 2023-24 Season | March 8, 2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder 107-100 Miami Heat |
| 2023-24 Season | January 10, 2024 | Oklahoma City Thunder 128-120 Miami Heat |
| 2022-23 Season | January 10, 2023 | Miami Heat 112-111 Oklahoma City Thunder |
Oklahoma City Thunder Form & Key Stats – LWWWW
Record | Home Form | Road Form |
30-5 | 17-1 | 13-3 |
The reigning NBA champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, are proving why they are the best team in the league this season. The team is 30-5 so far, boasting ruthless scoring, strong defense, and a roster that looks virtually unbeatable.
The franchise has lost only one game at home, maintaining a near-perfect record on their home court. Their other four defeats came on the road or in a neutral arena for the NBA Cup final, but their minimal losses imply they are a serious threat regardless of the opposition.
Oklahoma City Thunder – Offense vs Miami Heat
The Thunder’s offense, spearheaded by reigning MVP Shai Gulegous-Alexander, has propelled them to one of the most difficult offenses to break down. The franchise is averaging 122.4 points per game, behind only the Denver Nuggets.
Additionally, the Thunder rank second and third overall in free-throw and field goal percentages, demonstrating the offensive threat posed by multiple players. Their roster is deep and versatile, featuring a wide range of scoring options.
Key Players to Watch
Shai Gulegous-Alexander (Guard) – Gilgeous-Alexander has established himself as one of the best in the league, averaging 32.1 points, 6.4 assists, and 4.6 rebounds. These numbers show he wasn’t last year’s MVP for no reason.
Chet Holmgren (Center) – At 23, and in only his third year in the professional setup, Holmgren is one of the best centers in the league. Averaging 18.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game is impressive, and there is every chance he will improve.
Isaiah Hartenstein (Center) – Despite Holmgren’s influence on offense and defense, Hartenstein is the roster leader in rebounds per game. He’s averaging 10.4 per game; these are impressive numbers that make the Thunder extremely difficult to break down.
Injury Report:
- Brooks Marnhizer – Day-to-day
- Cason Wallace – Day-to-day (knee)
- Isaiah Joe – Day-to-day (knee)
- Jaylin Williams – Out (heel)
- Isaiah Hartenstein – Out (calf)
- Ousmane Dieng – Out (calf)
Miami Heat Form & Key Stats – WWWWL
Record | Home Form | Road Form |
19-16 | 12-6 | 7-10 |
The Miami Heat have won four of their last five matches to kickstart their season, but it’s uncertain how much of a threat they will pose if they make the playoffs. The Heat have one of the best defenses despite their 19-16 record, evidenced by their 8th place ranking on rebounds. They are averaging 45.6 per game, the same number as the Portland Trail Blazers and the Chicago Bulls.
In addition, the organization is one of the most productive in the league, averaging 28.7 assists per game. This ranks them seventh across the league, highlighting the serious threat they pose in ball movement.
Miami Heat – Offense vs Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
The Heat have an impressive average of 120.7 points per game, which makes them the third-best team based on the averages. Even with their record, the Thunder will have a tough task on their hands for this clash.
Key Players to Watch
- Norman Powell (Guard) – Powell is the organization’s leading shooter this season, producing 24.1 points per game. The numbers place him 21st in the league, but he’s 32 years of age, suggesting he’s playing at his best level.
- Andrew Wiggins (Forward) – Wiggins is averaging 16.3 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, numbers that suggest he has an explosive game when needed. His trade from the Golden State Warriors has paid off.
- Bam Adebayo (Center) – Adebayo is producing his lowest total number of points per game averages since the 2019-20 season, averaging 17.4, but he’s ever consistent on defense. His average rebound count of 9.7 puts him firmly in the top 10 in the league.
Injury Report
- Terry Rozier – Out (immediate leave)
- Tyler Herro – Out (toe)
- Pelle Larsson – Out (ankle)
- Nikola Jovic – Day-to-day (groin)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. – Day-to-day (ankle)
- Bam Adebayo – Day-to-day (lower back soreness)
Predicted Line-Ups
Oklahoma City Thunder
Guard: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Guard: Luguentz Dort
Center: Branden Carlson
Forward: Jalen Williams
Forward: Aaron WigginsMiami Heat
Guard: Davion Mitchell
Guard: Norman Powell
Center: Bam Adebayo
Forward: Andrew Wiggins
Forward: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Value Bets
If you plan to bet on NBA games, use trusted US sportsbooks and compare the total and player lines before placing your picks. Small line changes can make a big difference, so take a moment to check the best price available.
Bam Adebayo to post at least 15 points and at least 10 rebounds: One key player for this matchup is the Heat’s Bam Adebayo. Adebayo always plays at a high standard against the Thunder, leaving us to predict this stat sheet.
Total Points: Over 245.5: Both the Thunder and the Heat have two of the top three best offenses in the league.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Can Win
The Thunder have a far superior recent head-to-head record against the Heat.
With his stellar season averages, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be a nightmare for the Heat to defend.
The Thunder’s record shows that they are a dangerous threat.
Expert Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to Win
I conclude this preview, predicting the Oklahoma City Thunder to prevail. Both sides have an excellent standard offense, but the Thunder will be able to use their defense to secure the win. In addition, the Thunder have won their last four games, which backs our consensus as to why we think the reigning NBA champions will win.
Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.
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