Betting
The American Express Preview: Tops, Odds, Tips & Predictions 2026
The American Express gets underway on Thursday, 22 January, from PGA West and La Quinta Country Club in California. We look at the tournament, providing insight into everything you need to know ahead of placing any bets on the action. For fans and bettors alike, we suggest you place your bets on reputable US betting sites where you can find the best value for your money.
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Patrick Cantlay of Team United States / Getty Images
Pre-Tournament Odds and Win Probability
The early betting markets seem to suggest that the field for this year’s event is wide open. Granted, the bigger names in the tournament are priced up as early favourites, but beyond that, there is value on almost every other player.
Our suggestion here is that you navigate your way through the favourites, but be sure not to overlook the otherwise lesser-known entries.
Player | Odds | Implied Win % |
Patrick Cantlay | +1200 | 7.7% |
Xander Schauffele | +1400 | 6.7% |
Tony Finau | +1600 | 5.9% |
Sam Burns | +2000 | 4.8% |
Sungjae Im | +2200 | 4.3% |
*Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Course Rotation and Format Breakdown
The American Express is a uniquely formatted tournament; it uses a three-course rotation, unlike any other major international golf tournament. This is essential to understand for players wanting to place a bet on the action.
From Thursday (when play gets started) until Saturday, players will rotate rounds at the following courses:
- PGA WEST Stadium Course (Pete Dye)
- PGA WEST Nicklaus Tournament Course
- La Quinta Country Club
Once the cut is established, Sunday’s “finals day” is played at the Stadium Course, where a winner is established. Besides the rotation causing a logistical consideration for the players, the reality is that this also plays a major role in Sunday’s cut. Some players are better suited to certain courses, while others seem to play more easily earlier in the competition.
Course | Par / Yardage | Scoring Pattern | Favours |
Stadium Course | Par 72 / 7,200 yds | Toughest of three | Ball striking, approach play |
Nicklaus Course | Par 72 / 7,100 yds | Birdie-friendly | Par-5 scoring, wedges |
La Quinta CC | Par 72 / 7,000 yds | Easiest | Accuracy, hot putting |
Key Trends and Stats That Matter Here
Interestingly, this tournament ranks among the lowest-scoring affairs on the PGA Tour. Here is a closer look at stats that will likely underpin betting success over this weekend.
- Birdie or Better % – Winning scores regularly reach 25-under.
- Par-5 Scoring – Reachable par-5s drive separation.
- Strokes Gained: Approach – Wedge-heavy setups reward elite iron play.
- Proximity 100–150 yards – Key distance range across all three courses.
- Putting (baseline only) – Putting matters, but week-to-week volatility is high.
- Driving Accuracy – Especially important at La Quinta CC.
- Wind performance – Afternoon winds can affect Stadium Course scoring.
Players to Watch
Contenders:
- Patrick Cantlay
Aside from the fact that he is originally from California, his approach to play is second to none. His putting, which is often inconstant, will need to be at its level best, but he is certainly one to consider here. - Xander Schauffele
He is arguably one of the best all-around players in this field. There won’t be too much value in backing Schauffele, but at the same time, you cannot leave him out. - Tony Finau
He could be the value pick here, especially since he is so comfortable playing on the fringes and being aggressive when the opportunity presents itself. He also has question marks around his putting game, but we like the look of his chances if he can remain relevant in the opening exchanges.
Sleepers
- Sam Burns
He is a player who really enjoys the resort-style course. He has an iron game, which ranks among the best in the business, and so could prove to be a dangerous player at this year’s tournament. - Sunjae Im
He always seems to play with a degree of consistency, and aligned with his wedge game, the top-10 at a tournament like this isn’t something miles away from his ability.
Longshots
- Taylor Montgomery
There isn’t a tremendous amount to say about his chances here, and to be fair, he hasn’t played any golf recently, which makes you jump up and down – but in a low-scoring tournament, a player with an incredible and consistent putting game can never be counted out. - JT Poston
He is another player who thrives on confidence. When he is in form, he is tremendous; when he isn’t, it really can all unravel very quickly. His chances might be worth a shout here.
Suggested Bets
Patrick Cantlay – Top 10 Finish
It isn’t going to return enough for you to retire, but backing Cantlay to finish inside the top 10 is likely the most secure bet of this tournament.
Sungjae Im – Make the Cut
This is a betting angle that will likely return a more generous offering. Sungjae is certainly an outside betting choice, so backing him to make the cut could be the safer play.
Value Bets
For punters wanting to bet on golf with a bigger potential return, here are some considerations.
Taylor Montgomery – Top 20 Finish
At the risk of sounding rather repetitive, this betting angle only exists for us because of the potential consistency he brings to his putting game. The price will likely be lucrative, and throwing a few coins in this direction will likely return a pleasant price.
The American Express Predictions
Aside from any weird and wonderful weather in the desert, this is another tournament likely to be decided by clinical finishing and early points. For us, if you must back an outright pick early on, Patrick Cantlay makes the most sense. This is a tournament where consistency is highly favoured, and if you lose focus early on, you aren’t going to be able to regain any sort of credence.
FAQs
It is played in La Quinta, California, through PGA WEST and La Quinta Country Club.
Players rotate between the Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course, and La Quinta CC from Thursday to Saturday. Sunday’s final round is played on the Stadium Course.
A 54-hole cut is made after Saturday, with only qualifying players advancing to Sunday.
Yes. The American Express is a celebrity pro-am.
Top-20 finishes, make-the-cut bets, and head-to-head matchups are ideal entry points.
Ryan Liberty is an experienced sports writer whose work has been featured in a range of well-known sports publications.