Scheffler Leads Cadillac Championship Odds as McIlroy Misses Event

It’s not just his number 1 ranking that has earned the New Jersey native such long odds. Rory McIlroy, the man who beat Scheffler by a single stroke just three weeks ago at Augusta National, is missing from the field.

Scottie Scheffler arrives at Trump National Doral 

The McIlroy Effect

McIlroy's withdrawal from this week's Signature Event is the single biggest factor influencing the betting market. The 36-year-old Northern Irishman has not teed it up since his triumph at the Masters, where he made history by becoming just the fourth player ever to win back-to-back green jackets, joining Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo, and Tiger Woods. 

His final-round 71 edged Scheffler by one shot at 12-under, claiming his sixth major title and cementing his status as the greatest European golfer of all time.

That makes his absence from Doral all the more significant from a market perspective. McIlroy is the only player this season who has beaten Scheffler in a head-to-head final-round environment. 

In the final Masters pairing, it was McIlroy and Cameron Young who pushed Scheffler hardest. Scheffler ultimately settled for solo second, bogey-free over the last 39 holes but still one back. With McIlroy sitting this one out, sportsbooks have moved Scheffler to an unusually short price for a 72-player stroke-play field.

Are Sheffler’s Odds Justified?

Scheffler has held the world No. 1 ranking for 182 weeks in total, including a current streak of 148 consecutive weeks at the top dating to May 2023. He led the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green at 2.361 in 2025, a full 1.06 strokes per round ahead of the second-ranked player.

His 2026 form has been relentless at the top of the leaderboard with a win at the American Express to open the season, back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Masters and the RBC Heritage, and first place in PGA Tour scoring average, birdie average, and bogey avoidance. 

At Doral specifically, the Blue Monster's demands suit him well. The course plays 7,739 yards to a par 72 with water in play on the majority of holes, rewarding driving length, iron precision, and composure under pressure, all areas where Scheffler sits at or near the top of every relevant metric.

Other Contenders

Cameron Young sits second in the market at +1,200, making him the only other player with odds that suggest he’s got a shot at beating Scheffler. Young is ranked No. 4 in the world, won The Players Championship in March, and finished T-3 at the Masters after sharing the lead in the final round. He and Scheffler are paired together for rounds one and two, setting up one of the week's most watched matchups.

Other Contenders

Collin Morikawa follows at +1,800, bolstered by four consecutive top-10 finishes since his Pebble Beach victory in February. His tee-to-green precision makes him a natural fit for Doral's tricky design, even if his driving length is not quite on par with the bombers in the field. 

After that, Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley are both priced at +2,200, with Patrick Cantlay (+3,000), Adam Scott (+3,250), and Viktor Hovland (+3,500) rounding out the mid-range options. The notably wide gaps between Scheffler and the rest of the board are a consequence of the field's thinning at the top.

Multiple Withdrawals Hollow Out the Field

McIlroy is not alone in sitting out. Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Åberg, and Matt Fitzpatrick are all absent from the field, which is particularly notable in Fitzpatrick's case, as he had won three of the four events he'd entered most recently, including defeating Scheffler in a playoff at the RBC Heritage the week after the Masters. 

Robert MacIntyre is also absent, so five of the world's top 15 have opted off this week, highlighting the compressed scheduling between the Masters and PGA Championship. The tournament is a new Signature Event, the fifth of eight on the 2026 PGA Tour calendar, featuring a $20 million purse, no cut, and a limited 72-player field.

A Venue Returning After a Decade Away

The Blue Monster hosted a PGA Tour event annually from 1962 to 2016. Tiger Woods famously claimed four victories at the venue. The last winner here was Adam Scott in 2016, who is in the field this week, and there are only 16 players in the current 72-man field who have competitive experience at Doral.

That cuts both ways. With no historical course data to lean on, bettors are left relying heavily on recent form, statistical metrics, and general course fit, which point firmly toward one name at the top of the market.