How to Hedge a Sports Bet: Formula, Examples & Profit Calculator

The question is, hedge or not to hedge? I’ll show you how to use 3rd-grade math to calculate the optimal hedge in under 30 seconds!

Hedging trades maximum upside for return. You will almost always give up some expected value.

My Go-To Hedge Stake Formula

To lock in equal profit on both outcomes, the optimal hedge stake is:
Hedge Stake = Original Potential Payout ÷ Hedge Decimal Odds. ^[2]

For example, you bet $100 on a team at +600 (total payout: $700). The opponent is now -200 (decimal: 1.50) at game time. Your hedge stake is $700 ÷ 1.50 = $466.67. Whether your original pick wins or the opponent does, you’ll take home a profit of $233.33.

If you don't want to eliminate all variance, you can place a partial hedge at any stake below the full amount. A half-hedge reduces downside without surrendering the chance of a bigger win.^[3]

Super Bowl LXI Futures Hedge

You placed $100 on the Seattle Seahawks to win Super Bowl LXI at +950 back in the preseason. That gave you a potential total payout of $1,050 ($100 stake + $950 profit). The Hawks defied the odds, won the NFC, and are now headed to New Orleans to face the Kansas City Chiefs.

Credit: BetMGM Sportsbook – Screenshot captured by Felix Dubler on June 1

With the game two days away, the Chiefs are installed as -160 favorites by all licensed NFL sportsbooks. The Seahawks are +135 to win the Lombardi outright.

To execute a full hedge, you divide the potential payout of your Seahawks futures ticket ($1,050) by the Chiefs' decimal odds of 1.625, resulting in a hedge stake of $646.15 on Kansas City. 

If Seattle wins the Super Bowl, your futures ticket pays out $1,050, but you lose the $646.15 hedge bet, leaving you with a net profit of $303.85.

If the Chiefs win, the hedge bet returns $403.85 in profit ($646.15 × 0.625), while your original $100 futures stake loses, again leaving you with a net profit of $303.85.

A partial hedge is also an option. Whacking $300 on the Chiefs instead of $646 means a Kansas City win returns a $187.50 profit while a Seahawks win returns $637.50. You're not fully covered, but you’ll still walk away with cash in any scenario.

NBA Live Totals Hedge - Knicks vs. Spurs, Game 1

You opened with $100 on the over 218.5 points at -110 for Game 1 of the Knicks-Spurs playoff series. Your potential total payout is $190.91. Both teams came out firing, and at halftime the combined score is 122 points, putting you well ahead of pace for the full-game total.

Credit: BetMGM Sportsbook – Screenshot captured by Felix Dubler on June 1

With 122 points already on the board in 24 minutes of game time, you need just 97 more from the remaining 24 minutes to cash. The reputable NBA sportsbook has adjusted, so now the under is paying +160. 

To figure out how much to bet on the under, just take $190.91 ÷ 2.6, which works out to be $73.43. Now you can’t lose. It doesn’t matter if 230 or 190 points are scored, you’re going home with $17.48.

As you can see, even though the Spurs and Knicks got hot from the field and dropped 122 points, you aren’t a huge favorite to win. Seeing as the hedge is only locking in a $17.48 win on a $164.34 outlay, I’d just let this one ride or hedge later in the game when the odds have moved even more in my favor.

French Open In-Play Hedge - Tiafoe vs. Arnaldi, 4th Round

You placed $50 on Frances Tiafoe at -110 to beat Matteo Arnaldi in the fourth round at Roland Garros. That gives you a potential total payout of $95.45 ($50 stake + $45.45 profit). Tiafoe played brilliantly in sets one and two, winning both 6-3, 6-4. Arnaldi now needs to win three straight sets to advance.

Credit: BetMGM Sportsbook – Screenshot captured by Felix Dubler on June 1

From 0-2 down in a best-of-five match at Roland Garros, a player has historically completed the comeback roughly 5.90% of the time across all Grand Slam Open Era data [6]. 

However, Arnaldi is a clay-court specialist, and Tiafoe is known to have lapses in concentration when serving out matches. The live market reflects a small but real comeback probability: Arnaldi is available at +700 (decimal: 8.00) to win the match.

To throw on a hedge, just divide the potential payout of your Tiafoe ticket ($95.45) by Arnaldi's live decimal odds of 8.00, producing a hedge stake of $11.93 on Arnaldi. 

When Tiafoe clinches match point, you collect $45.45 in profit from the original wager but lose the $11.93 hedge, leaving you with a net profit of $33.52.

If Arnaldi stages the comeback, the hedge bet returns $83.51 in profit ($11.93 × 7), while your original $50 stake loses, resulting in a net profit of $33.51. 

The hedge here is really serving as insurance. You're paying $11.93 for the guarantee that a historically rare 0-2 comeback doesn't wipe your $50 stake entirely.

Hedging’s Impact on Expected Value

Hedging usually reduces your long-run expected return at NBA, NFL, and MLS books because it’s unlikely your opposing bet also had unexpected value. And depending on the market, the book can hit you with a steep vig. 

Before I hedge, I run through the numbers and work out how much EV I’m giving up. The formula for expected value is: EV = (Win Probability × Potential Win) – (Loss Probability × Stake). ^[4]

Cast your mind back to the Tiafoe vs Arnaldi match.  If the Italian has only a 6% chance of winning from 0-2 down, then your EV of letting it ride = (0.94 × $45.45) – (0.06 × $50) = $39.72 expected profit.

By hedging at $11.93 and guaranteeing a $33.51, you're sacrificing 15.6% of EV, but you've also eliminated the chance of losing $50 on a set-completed match.

Whether that trade is worth it depends on the size of the bet relative to your bankroll, your subjective tolerance for variance, and the utility of a guaranteed return versus a probabilistic one. ^[5]