Texans Expected to Keep CJ Stroud Commitment Short-Term Despite Fifth-Year Option

Texans general manager Nick Caserio addressed the team’s decision to apply the fifth-year option to quarterback CJ Stroud at his pre-draft press conference this week, but it’s what he left unsaid that probably spoke loudest.

Caserio referred to the decision to secure the option with Stroud as “kind of a no-brainer,” and it was, but he wasn’t nearly as verbose about securing the quarterback’s services beyond 2027. Nor should he be.

Stroud’s performance has been in steep decline since an historic rookie season and his meltdowns in the playoffs last season, on top of a regular season in which a change to a new offensive coordinator resulted in similarly tepid and un-inspired play, has given serious pause to evaluators around the league about paying Stroud as one of the top passers in the game. 

Dak Prescott’s $60M-a-year deal has become the standard. 

"I think Nick chose his words pretty carefully,” one longtime NFL executive, who has long thought Stroud would not be receiving a contract extension this offseason, told SportsBoom.us. 

“He’s going to rent him for another year or two. Pay-as-you go. He got to see (Tom) Brady up close in New England. He’s not going to be in a rush to do a deal with Stroud going in reverse.”

Buyer Beware

Stroud will cost roughly $28M in 2027; even if the Texans wanted to move on after this season that fifth-year options provide the ability to trade him. 

In recent years the Cardinals and Dolphin overpaid first-round quarterbacks based on limited regular-season success (and no playoff success) and came to regret it, with Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa getting released this offseason with no compensation for the teams that selected them.

“One year isn’t enough to give him the kind of money he’s going to want,” said on NFL general manager who has done significant quarterback contracts. 

“You have to make him wait and prove it.”

Stroud would have little provocation to sell low and offer years beyond 2027 at the kind of money the Texans would likely be willing to spend. 

And the Texans are quite likely too sharp to reward Stroud with a top-five QB deal based on how he has played to this point.