NFL Draft Market Shifts: Arvell Reese No Longer a Lock at Pick Two

The 2026 NFL draft is now less than a month away and the wagering markets continue to evolve. 

Finding plus-money plays for the likeliest scenarios is going to become increasingly difficult as more attention is turned to these plays and more information becomes available about how these teams truly feel about the available talent.

Sportsbooks seem convinced that the draft truly begins with the third-overall pick, as it’s a foregone conclusion the Raiders will select quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall and, now, they are leaning more into the prospect that Ohio State pass rusher Arvell Reese is the heavy favorite to be the second pick. 

However, continued discussions with NFL executives and agents paints a much more wide-open portrait, and one that might be worth dabbling in.

Last week, Reese was priced at -220 to go second overall at DraftKings and FanDuel had him priced at -230. Now it’s shifted to -170, and will dip further we suspect as more GMs converse and it becomes clear the Jets are deadset on a certain option with that pick (or could possibly move down).

As we hear it, there are a number of players under consideration by the Jets with the second-overall pick, and while it certainly could be Reese who hears his name called there, we continue to be intrigued by other options and top evaluators continue to maintain Reese doesn’t sound like an absolutely slam dunk to them, either. 

Texas Tech’s David Bailey will continue to gain steam at pick No 2 as well.

Who Else Is In The Mix?

Miami DL Rueben Bain, Jr. remains a fascinating prospect and more than one top exec has now told us he may be the best defensive lineman in this draft. He is built for the New York market on field and off field. 

Like their Big Apple neighbours, the Giants, the Jets are also incredibly high on Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles, and it wouldn’t shock us in the least if he went after Mendoza. There is also always the prospect of a trade, which would not necessarily result in Reese being the coveted party.

“I don’t think Reese is set in stone at 2, or anywhere, really,” said one evaluator, who fully expects Reese to be gone in the first seven or eight selections but doesn’t view him as a must-have piece to go after the quarterback. 

With that in mind, we’ve continued to circle the over/under markets. We got on Reese Over pick 2.5 selections +165 last week and it’s down to +130.