NFL GMs Certain Fernando Mendoza Is No.1 Pick — But Is He a Generational Talent?

In the doldrums before the NFL draft, and at a time with few attractive options still on the open market among unrestricted free agents, invariably silly debates will dominate the news cycle. 

Lately, the viability of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has seemingly fallen into question, with some making the case for Alabama’s Ty Simpson to be in the conversation for best quarterback prospect in the draft.

The reality is that Mendoza will be the first player selected in this draft and he is, undoubtedly, the best NFL quarterback prospect in this draft among multiple general managers and personnel executives that have discussed this topic. 

“What is the media’s fascination with Ty Simpson,” one GM asked me in jest. 

“He is way more of a project than a prospect, but I cant turn on the TV without somebody talking about him.” 

SportsBoom have already reported on the multitude of top evaluators who prefer North Dakota State’s Cole Payton to Simpson, and for as much chatter as there has been about Simpson rising in this draft, the odds of more than one passer being taken in the first round are basically zilch. For good reason.

Alas, it is simply that time of year. Perhaps the better way to frame the discussion among quarterbacks at the very top of the draft, is whether Mendoza is truly worthy of the first-overall selection. 

And while no one SportsBoom spoke to is blaming the Raiders for grabbing Mendoza with the first pick given their needs, where they are as a franchise and how their roster is constructed, that doesn’t mean any team picking that high would be doing the same thing.

How Supreme A Prospect Is Mendoza?

“He’s going first-overall as a function of market forces, most immediate of which is supply and demand,” said one longtime NFL personnel executive whose team will not be involved in the quarterback draft market. 

“For what the Raiders need and what this draft has to offer, they are making the decision I would expect them to make… But if you are asking me, is this the kind of prospect whose body of work suggests he is the consensus best player in the draft, and a prospect the caliber of which he is essentially untouchable, the way a Joe Burrow or Andrew Luck, or even Trevor Lawrence was? Of course not.”

Mendoza does not have a long history of elite production and was something of a one year wonder at Indiana; he was the engine in them having the most improbable season in college football history. 

He is a great kid, and a great leader and he executed their offense with aplomb. He has more than sufficient physical gifts and ability to play the position at the NFL level and win at the NFL with the right cast around him but…

“Is he a generational quarterback prospect... no,” one general manager said. 

“Would I ever consider taking Simpson over him if I needed a quarterback? That’s not even a question.”