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Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Saturday, 21ST February 2026 Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada Ring-walk time: 8 pm EST (1 am BST) WBC welterweight titleholder Mario Barrios will look to defend his crown as he takes on Ryan Garcia at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This is Garcia’s best attempt at securing a first major world title after tough times away from the ring. Which boxer will prevail? SportsBoom recommends spending some time reviewing these recommended boxing betting sites, which we believe offer the best value for your returns.

Henry Cheal
Henry Cheal

Last updated: 2026-01-30

Chad Nagel

3 minutes read

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Ryan Garcia in action during a media workout

Ryan Garcia in action during a media workout / Getty Images

Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability:

Check out these trusted online betting sites ahead of time for this encounter. 

  1. Mario Barrios: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%

  2. Draw: 10/1 (11.00) – 9.1%

  3. Ryan Garcia: 1/5 (1.20) – 83.3%

    Forecast odds – Betting available on FanDuel closer to event

Tale of the Tape

AttributeMario BarriosRyan Garcia
Age3027
Height6ft 0”(183 cm)5ft 9” (175 cm)
Reach74” (188 cm)70” (178 cm)
StanceOrthodox Orthodox
Record29-2-224-2-2
KO Wins1820
Total Rounds Boxed210124
Weight Class/RoundsWBO Junior Welterweight/12N/A
Titles HeldWBC Welterweight ChampionN/A
Last Five ResultsD (MD), D (SD), W (UD), W (UD), W (TKO) L (UD), NC (NC), W (KO), L (KO), W (KO) 
Sportsboom Event Table Logo

Mario Barrios

Mario Barrios is coming off a draw against boxing veteran Manny Pacquiao, but he hasn’t won his last two fights. The Texan is putting his WBC welterweight belt on the line despite this mixed run of performances, suggesting a tough matchup ahead. 

Barrios stated ahead of the fight: “The fight’s set, Feb 21st. Ya’ll know what I bring every time I step in there. They said that he’s focused, that we’re going to get a Ryan that’s 100% and that makes me happy to hear, so when I whoop a** on Feb. 21, there won’t be no excuses… The boxing fans are going to get a great fight and this ain’t a fight that you want to miss.” 

Keys for Barrios to Win

Barrios’ biggest advantage is his height. He can use his larger size as leverage to control the tempo of the fight. Garcia’s speed will be something Barrios has to contend with, so slowing the fight down could play into his hands.
While his physical advantage is undeniable, his superior reach allows him to land punches at key moments. Timing will be crucial, as it could have a significant impact on the outcome.

Ryan Garcia

Ryan Garcia is searching for his first victory since 2023, after testing positive for the banned substance Ostarine. He returns to action, aiming to claim the welterweight title for the first time. His ban was lifted in November 2025, and this contest is sure to live up to the hype.

Garcia added ahead of the matchup: “I’m really honored to be part of this huge fight. WBC, I can’t thank ya’ll enough. The WBC, I love the WBC. Like, you have no idea how much I love the WBC. You can do a lot of talking, at the end of the day, the fight is Feb. 21. I’m ready to put a beating on somebody. I’m hungry.”

Keys for Garcia to Win

Garcia’s primary weapon is his potent left hook, which could wear Barrios down if he lands it cleanly. Landing a few strong punches early could put Barrios on the back foot immediately.

His smaller stature and lighter frame give him greater speed, allowing him to move around the ring effectively and land damaging punches.

Value Bets

  1. Fight goes the distance (yes): Both fighters will push each other all the way, and we see this going the distance. 

  2. Over 11.5 Rounds: Based on our prediction that the fight goes the distance, this fight will have 12 rounds, leading us to suggest the fight will be contested over 11.5 rounds. 

  3. Ryan Garcia by decision: Should the fight go the distance; the judges’ scorecards will decide who prevails. Ryan Garcia is the one I would back to win. 

Mario Barrios vs Ryan Garcia Prediction: Garcia by Decision

SportsBoom backs Ryan Garcia to prevail by decision in Las Vegas. His return to the ring is highly anticipated, and while this is his first shot at a major world title at welterweight, it represents his best opportunity yet. A knockout may be unlikely, but we expect Garcia to secure victory on points.

Henry Cheal
Henry ChealSports Writer

Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.